With just three weeks until the draft here are my best guesses about Round 1 and who else Miami may be pursuing on Day 2. The trade for Sam Darnold and the 49ers suddenly demanding a 1st Round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo gave me a much better idea of how the first four picks may play it. This is very good news for Miami. Here goes!

1. Trevor Lawrence QB Jaguars
2. Zach Wilson QB Jets
3. Trey Lance QB 49ers
4. Justin Fields QB Falcons
5. Ja'Marr Chase WR Bengals
6. Kyle Pitts TE Dolphins
7. Jaylen Waddle WR Lions
8. Penei Sewell OT Panthers
9. Patrick Surtain II CB Broncos
10. Rashawn Slater OT Cowboys
11. Jaycee Horn CB Giants
12. Devonta Smith WR Eagles
13. Christian Darisaw OT Chargers
14. Micah Parsons Edge/LB Vikings
15. Zaven Collins LB Patriots
16. Najee Harris RB Cardinals
17. Caleb Fairley CB Raiders
18. Creed Humphrey C Dolphins
19. Mac Jones QB Football Team
20. Samuel Cosmi OT Bears
21. Kwity Paye Edge Colts
22. Dillon Radunz OT Titans
23. Travis Etienne RB Jets
24. Alijah Vera-Tucker OT/G Steelers
25. Trevon Moehrig S Jaguars
26. Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah LB Browns
27. Joseph Ossai Edge Ravens
28. Rashod Bateman WR Saints
29. Jalen Mayfield OT Packers
30. Carlos Basham Edge Bills
31. Teven Jenkins OT Chiefs
32. Christian Barmore DT Bucs

Okay, so let's look at a few things. As I previously mentioned, the QB moves today make me think it will go 1-2-3-4 for the first time ever. Even if the 49ers deal Jimmy Garoppolo to the Patriots they will have choices for veteran stopgaps whether it is Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater or even Alex Smith. I also think the Bengals will opt for Ja'Marr Chase and with the thought of grabbing someone like Alex Leatherwood in Round 2.

Miami gets to grab an athletic freak who can change their offense. I still worry that they may love Devonta Smith too much, as Tony Pauline and Benjamin Allbright have consistently mentioned, but you can find his skill set later in the draft. Pitts has an incredibly rare size and speed combo that is too difficult to pass up. I bet Miami knew that one of him or Chase would be available at 6 and therefore Chris Grier made the move.

Now I bet some of you will be disappointed with Creed Humphrey at 18. You'll probably ask why not a pass rusher or a trade-up for Najee Harris. Tony Pauline has Humphrey as the 22nd ranked prospect in the country. Miami has also been missing a consistent presence in the middle since peak Mike Pouncey. To my knowledge, Humphrey has no injury issues and was a dominant presence for the Sooners. I read that Miami really liked him at the Senior Bowl. If Grier does not trade back he will take BPA and I believe Humphrey is that guy at 18.

As for Mac Jones, I do not see him as top 10 material. I think that is your major fluff story of the draft season. Washington getting him around 19 feels right, especially with word that he would be drafted much higher than expected being circulated back in December. I think a guy with a mid-round grade now going Round 1 makes sense for that scenario.

Miami has three selections on Day 2 and I believe they could have more by trading back. With Najee Harris being picked before 18 the attention could shift to Javonte Williams at pick 36. Adding both Humphrey and Williams would go a long way towards boosting the RPO that Flores wants to run. I did not realize that Williams is especially good at pass blocking which is something Tua Tagovailoa will need. If they stand pat at picks 50 and 81 I would imagine pass rusher and another wide receiver would be important. There were rumors of addressing cornerback but my hunch is that was smoke to keep teams guessing or pursue possible targets prior to Miami picking at 36. Rashad Weaver is an Edge I would strongly keep my eye on. Tylan Wallace is the WR I hope they target, but I would also be happy with Amon Ra St. Brown. I would love if they could trade back to grab an extra Day 2 pick. We'll see if Chris Grier is ready to wheel and deal.

Hope you enjoy it!

It has been an unusually quiet week for Miami in the free-agent market.

I don't think any major moves are in the works to sign a player although rumors of inking Seattle RB Chris Carson popped up yesterday. Miami's only major need at this point is an Edge to replace Shaq Lawson. The two best available are Melvin Ingram and Carlos Dunlap, but both are older than what Miami targets.

Per Barry Jackson, Miami sits at $12.5 million under the cap but will need to create room to accommodate rookies, practice squad guys, and some cushion. Something will have to give.

I don't think it would be a stretch to see if Miami will try and trade some WRs, notably Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, and Allen Hurns. Fetching more than a conditional 7th Round pick is a pipe dream but it is at least something better than a release.

I would not be surprised if Miami tried to trade for an Edge, possibly with a swap of draft picks. Maybe a team looking to move up in the draft would send one?

Speaking of the draft, a few things come to mind. If the rumors are true about Carolina going all-in on Deshaun Watson it hurts Miami's chances of getting a haul for the 3rd overall pick. I do not think either Philly or Detroit will be aggressive in moving up. Flores also hinted at staying in the Top 10 so that eliminates San Francisco. Word is Atlanta is hot for Trey Lance so maybe the best you get is them flipping a mid-round pick to secure the 3rd pick. This of course hinges on Carolina landing Watson.

My deeper thoughts are focusing on Miami repeating what they did last year. If I had to guess I think they might be aiming to trade back into the 1st Round for a player, similar to acquiring Noah Igbinoghene. Perhaps they grab a receiving target in the Top 10 (my current favorites are Kyle Pitts and Jaylen Waddle), use the 18th pick on either Najee Harris or Travis Etienne (they worked him out a lot), and trade back into Round 1 for a pass rusher (Azeez Ojulari and Joseph Ossai would be the targets). If they don't have to give up the 50th pick to make that move then they should be sitting pretty to grab a center with starting capability. This scenario seems like a Chris Grier type of strategy.

Feel free to agree or disagree.

Alright, guys, this my first attempt at a mock draft which will be eviscerated by unexpected free agent moves.

I do not expect Miami to be spenders. They have indicated the goal is extending their homegrown talent and will probably kick the can on a few inexpensive spare parts. I could definitely see them trading a 4th or 6th Round pick for a reasonably priced veteran to avoid free agent bidding if said player is on the chopping block (think Brandin Cooks in Houston).

I also see Miami pushing to trade down for 2022 assets.

FYI, I am not projecting trades at this point but I'll hint at a couple.

Here we go!

1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson

2. New York Jets - Justin Fields QB Ohio State

3. Carolina - Zach Wilson QB BYU

4. Atlanta - Micah Parsons LB Penn State

5. Cincinnati - Penei Sewell OT Oregon

6. Philadelphia - Ja'Marr Chase WR LSU

7. Detroit - Devonta Smith WR Alabama

8. Miami - Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama

9. Denver - Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama

10. Dallas - Kwity Paye DE Michigan

11. New York Giants - Caleb Fairley CB Virginia Tech

12. San Francisco - Rashawn Slater OT Northwestern

13. Los Angeles Chargers - Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech

14. Minnesota - Kyle Pitts TE Florida

15. New England - Zaven Collins LB Tulsa

16. Arizona - Najee Harris RB Alabama

17. Las Vegas - Gregory Rousseau DE Miami

18. Miami - Joseph Ossai Edge Texas

19. Washington - Alijah Vera-Tucker OT/OG USC

20. Chicago - Trey Lance QB NDSU

21. Indianapolis - Alex Leatherwood OT Alabama

22. Tennessee - Teven Jenkins OT Oklahoma State

23. New York Jets - Samuel Cosmi OT Texas

24. Pittsburgh - Wyatt Davis OG Ohio State

25. Jacksonville - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame

26. Cleveland - Ronnie Perkins Edge Oklahoma

27. Baltimore - Azeez Ojulari Edge Georgia

28. New Orleans - Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota

29. Green Bay - Jaylen Mayfield OT Michigan

30. Buffalo - Travis Etienne RB Clemson

31. Kansas City - Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina

32. Tampa Bay - Nick Bolton LB Missouri

Okay, let's digest a few things. Your first question will be why I have Jaylen Waddle at 3rd overall. I think Miami is going to trade down with Carolina. Carolina's big bid to get Matthew Stafford tells me they want a guy like Zach Wilson and took an early shot to get the 30-year-old version of him. My guess is Miami acquires Carolina's 2022 1st Rounder and either a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick as well (might be higher if they are willing to take a 2022 pick).

Waddle is exactly the type of receiver Miami needs. Great hands, one of the fastest in the draft, and without a doubt the most electric playmaker.

I think the Jets (if they do not acquire Deshaun Watson) will look for a guy who can handle the pressure of the New York market. That is why I have them going Justin Fields over Zach Wilson. I read that Washington may pursue Sam Darnold so add another pick to New York's war chest.

Joseph Ossai at 18? Another trade back scenario but I do not yet know who it will be. Ossai is versatile and appears to be a Flores guy. Miami needed to get creative with their blitzing so a natural pass rusher like Ossai is in order.

You'll also notice a very large run on OL prospects. The draft seems quite top-heavy in that area so my hunch is teams will be aggressive in their pursuit of QB protectors, especially tackles.

The only Day 2 pick I will discuss at this point is Center Creed Humphrey from Oklahoma. In fact, if Miami had to trade up from the 36th pick I would applaud the move. Some people prefer Alabama's Landon Dickerson but Humphrey has been on draft radars for a few years. Grier and Flores will value his character, leadership and steady play.

We can discuss other picks after free agency shakes out and teams really begin to set their draft boards.