6 Tennessee 5 6 0 4-4-0 Wins tie break over NY Jets, Pittsburgh and San Diego based on head-to-head sweep. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami
7 Pittsburgh 5 6 0 4-4-0 Wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games.
8 Baltimore 5 6 0 5-4-0 Wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games.
9 San Diego 5 6 0 3-5-0 Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in conference games.
10 NY Jets 5 6 0 2-6-0 Wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games.
11 Miami 5 6 0 4-3-0
12 Oakland 4 7 0 4-4-0 Wins tie break over Buffalo and Cleveland based on best win percentage in conference games.
13 Cleveland 4 7 0 3-5-0 Wins tie break over Buffalo based on head-to-head win percentage.
14 Buffalo 4 7 0 3-6-0
Tennessee @IND @DEN ARZ @JAX HOU
Pittsburgh @BALT MIA CIN @GB CLE
Baltimore PITT MIN @DET NE @CIN
San Diego CIN NYG @DEN OAK KC
New York MIA OAK @CAR CLE MIA
Miami @NYJ @PITT NE @BUF NYJ
Oakland @DAL @NYJ KC @SD DEN
Cleveland JAX @NE CHI @NYJ @PITT
Buffalo ATL @TB @JAX MIA @NE
Baltimore @ Pitt
Big Thanksgiving game. This will be big, and we want a Pittsburgh win. We hold ALL the tie breakers at this point due to conference record except with Baltimore (and Buffalo), so we need to get ahead of Baltimore, Mind you Baltimore plays a rough block of Detroit, New England, and Cincinnatti to close out the season against 3 playoff teams, so if it doesnt happen this week, I highly doubt they can run the table. Either way, one of the (5-6ers) will drop to (5-7) and with that being done, that will probably be the nail in the coffin for either team due to the head-to-head tie breakers and only 4 games to jump over the other one
Miami @ New York
Definite MUST win. Miami would drop to 3 division losses and would then trail New York in head to head, division record, and overall. Miami MUST win this one to be in the picture. If they don't its gonna be a wrap unless Miami can win the last 3 division games.... doubtful with New England on the schedule still.
Oakland and Buffalo out of conference
Tennesee @ Indy
They may hold the lead, but they have 4 losses.... one more than the Dolphins that hold the best conference record.. A loss would bring the Titans to 5, giving Miami a 2 game cushion if tie breakers play a factor. Tennessee's run to the top will be short lived, If Miami wins on Sunday, they will jump to the top of the pile (with a Baltimore loss)
Cin @ SD
Should be a rough game, in the spirit of things, If SD stays pace with Miami, no big deal, we have a head to Head
Pending the outcomes of Pitt/Balt, Mia/NYJ, the picture will be alot clearer. The wildcard WILL be owned by at least 2 (6-6) teams, as many as 4 (depending on SD and TEN). If Miami wins, they will either be 6th...(if three/four due to conference record, or 7th if it is head to head with Baltimore)
Miami @ Pitt
Another Must have. If Pittsburgh did us the favor on Thanksgiving, the winner should be sitting on the 6th seed at (7-6)
Baltimore, SD, and Buffalo out of conference- at this point, any 8 loss team is probably going to be eliminated, if not officially, it will be pending disaster
Oakland @ NYJ
Basically an elimination game for either team if they lost in Week 13
Ten @ DEN
Tennessee better hope they beat Indy, or else this one could be the death blow
At this point, Miami will either be in control of their own destiny, or needing alot of help. Miami should be 7-6 going in here, and in full control of the 6th seed (unless Baltimore has something to say about it). Winning 2 of 3 will lock it up here
NE @ Miami
This could be a loss, and it won't change anything. As long as we beat the Jets, and if we get past Pittsburgh, the best the Jets can do is tie us with an unfavorable head to head, and 7 conference losses (yea that saints win is looking meaningless now)
Baltimore @ Detriot
Interesting game. This may be the luck we will need to get in the playoffs, Baltimore's loss here may keep us a game ahead going into the final 2 weeks
Arizona @ Tennesee
Bad 3 weeks for the Titans, they is absolutely no way they are getting through this 3 week stretch without a loss.... it gets easier for them in the final 2, but if they hit that dreaded 8 loss mark, they will need some help to hold the fight
There is a chance that a (8-6) team is in sole possession of the wildcard, but the more probable results will have 2 or 3 (7-7) teams here probably 1 from the East, 1 from the North, and maybe 1 from the West.... If Miami is 7-7 they should be the leader having beat the Steelers and Jets
New England @ Baltimore
Should be a desperation game here. Baltimore having played 2 out of conference games, and if they lost to pittsburgh would be going in with 5 conference losses. A loss here would bring them to 6. Between this one and Cincinnatti in the final week, they will need to win at least 1 to make the playoffs against 2 division leaders.
If both are still alive, one of them is eliminated officially with a loss
If both are still alive, one of them is eliminated officially with a loss
Miami @ Buffalo
If Miami is 7-7 going in, they will need to win in order to keep the final week in their control. A loss here, and they won't be eliminated, but they will need some serious help plus a win over the Jets to be an 8-8 back door playoff team
Game of the Year (circa 2008) New York @ Miami
Winner take all. Miami wins and they are in. A loss, and they will lose the tie breaker to the Jets and be eliminated if it factors in. a head-to-head split would give miami 3 if not 4 division losses, which will lose to the Jets 2 or 3 losses
If the Wildcard goes to a 9-7 team at the point which is the most probable outcome. Tennesee would have to win the winnable ones, plus 2 of the first 3. More than likely they bottom out 7-9 or 8-8
Pittsburgh is interesting here. If they get past a split with Miami and Baltimore, they could ride out a 3 game win streak at the end to hit 9-7, the problem will be if the Ravens catch pace, they could be under them. If the Dolphins pull the road victory, the Steelers will be eliminated by tiebreaker with us
Buffalo if they are even alive will play NE, and probably knocked out of the race unless Brady sits. New England looks like they will be battling for home field the rest of the season, so don't count on it.
SD and KC.
This one is interesting. KC should have had the playoffs locked up for at least 2 weeks now. If they lose to Denver this week, they are a 3 loss team, and are a definite lock for the wildcard #5, if they beat Denver they will probably battle for the division crown. 1 win, locks the Chiefs into the #5 so that being said, SD may have a scrub team scrimmage. If they survive at (8-7) at this point which is doubtful, they probably would have the easiest path in (at 7-8 they will probably be eliminated due to tie breakers at 8-8)
Baltimore is in a funny position here. They will be playing a potential playoff opponent. Cincinatti may be in the position to play the lose to Baltimore to play them again in a week situation, or knock them out and play some one else. Should be interesting
Again. Miami is ranked 11th right now due to the tie breaker loss with the Jets that will be resolved in Week 13. Miami only has 3 conference losses, we hold all the positioning at the moment. Beat the Jets and we will be 6th, worst case 7th, and in great shape. The Carolina loss, however disappointing is pretty much meaningless. Tied for the Wildcard, 12 weeks in is better than the Dolphins have done in the past 5 years. Win 4 of 5, and the Dolphins are a lock to get in. Win 3 of 5 and it will come down to breakers, and again, we hold all of them except Baltimore. Baltimore loses 3 of the 5 and we are in great shape. Even with 2 losses, Miami will only have 5 conference losses, which will definitely put us in prime position. (Oakland, Balt, Pitt and Tennessee are the only ones with 4 as we speak, and none of those 4 are going to run the table)