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 Post subject: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:56 pm 
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That is a ton of cash for someone a one yr wonder. Well kinda one yr.

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According to a published report, there’s belief that one of the top free agent tight ends could command at least $6 million per season.

Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald reports the “market” for Miami’s Charles Clay “starts” at $6 million annually.

The 26-year-old Clay has been a key part of the Dolphins’ passing attack the last two seasons, hauling in a combined 127 passes for 1,364 yards and nine touchdowns.

The Herald‘s report on Clay comes on the heels of the Palm Beach Post‘s Andrew Abramson reporting the Dolphins were expected to retain Clay, but that a price tag of $5 million or more was possible. And the Post‘s report followed a report from Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News, who noted the Bills had their eye on the Dolphins’ pass-catching tight end.

The question now, of course, is where Clay’s market actually settles once free agency begins. Given his age, relative good health and production, he does seem well positioned to come away with a nice deal.

Clay ranks 48th among PFT’s top 100 free agents of 2015.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:25 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:39 pm 
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6 mill/per year is a little rich for me as well. 4 mill would be the most I would go. Odrick is supposedly looking for a deal in the 6 mill/per year range as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:49 pm 
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I'd rather have him at 5, but push comes to shove, I'd give 6, but that is my limit.

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:55 pm 
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phinsfansc wrote:
6 mill/per year is a little rich for me as well. 4 mill would be the most I would go. Odrick is supposedly looking for a deal in the 6 mill/per year range as well.

And he cant stay healthy Tone. If he leaves, keep molding Sims and draft Jesse James or Wes Saxton.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:00 pm 
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I'm with Serve on his health issues.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:57 pm 
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Here's an interesting perspective on Julius Thomas who is a free agent. He's looking for a nice big contract, and some fans have wanted us to go after him.

ESPN Insider wrote:
What's interesting about Julius Thomas is that the number that jumps out with him is his touchdown total: 12 last season on just 43 catches for 489 yards, and another 12 on 65 catches for 788 yards in 2013. That's 22 percent of his catches the past two seasons that have gone for touchdowns. If you look leaguewide at tight ends with at least 30 catches in a season, the only guy with even 16 percent of his catches going for TDs is the consensus No. 1 tight end in the NFL: Rob Gronkowski. What I'm getting at with all of this is that Julius' touchdown totals are unsustainable, and if you pay him based on his production, you're going to overpay him. Receiving yardage is actually a much more predictive stat for pass-catchers. None of this means he isn't a good player. It just means that his TD totals are much more likely a result of him playing in an explosive offense with Manning at QB and talented outside receivers to open up the seam than they are because he's an irreplaceable player. Put him in another offense, and he's not catching 12 touchdowns in just 13 games."


http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nfl/rumors/

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 5:06 pm 
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Big Dave wrote:
Here's an interesting perspective on Julius Thomas who is a free agent. He's looking for a nice big contract, and some fans have wanted us to go after him.

ESPN Insider wrote:
What's interesting about Julius Thomas is that the number that jumps out with him is his touchdown total: 12 last season on just 43 catches for 489 yards, and another 12 on 65 catches for 788 yards in 2013. That's 22 percent of his catches the past two seasons that have gone for touchdowns. If you look leaguewide at tight ends with at least 30 catches in a season, the only guy with even 16 percent of his catches going for TDs is the consensus No. 1 tight end in the NFL: Rob Gronkowski. What I'm getting at with all of this is that Julius' touchdown totals are unsustainable, and if you pay him based on his production, you're going to overpay him. Receiving yardage is actually a much more predictive stat for pass-catchers. None of this means he isn't a good player. It just means that his TD totals are much more likely a result of him playing in an explosive offense with Manning at QB and talented outside receivers to open up the seam than they are because he's an irreplaceable player. Put him in another offense, and he's not catching 12 touchdowns in just 13 games."


http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nfl/rumors/


To me that just says that Julius & Peyton worked on one thing in practice more than any other. They both knew Julius strength is that seam route & his jumping ability. So Peyton consistently dialed it up because its almost unstoppable when executed properly. I'll feel bad for the Jags is they get Thomas for a huge contract. Rumor is they want him

Kind of a random thought but I wonder what Manning would do with Charles Clay. Would he not fit their offense? Or would he become twice as dangerous because he could be utilized more?

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:04 pm 
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Thomas will suffer without Peyton.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:37 pm 
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Peyton certainly help Thomas a lot. But by the same token, Julius is a very talented TE as well.

On Clay, 5 mill/per year would be the very max. Love to have him back, as he is a weapon for the Dolphins. He and Odrick are the only FA that Miami has that I want back.

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:56 pm 
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That is amazing to me that the number $6 Million dollars a season is being breathed out in order to potentially keep Clay. I say no way to that number. Heck, $5 Million a season is probably too much too and more so because last year he was hurt just about the entire season. Don't get me wrong, I definitely want him back, but if the money gets ridiculous, unfortunately I say let him go sign elsewhere. I am with Swerve, if push comes to shove, keep progressing with Sims and see what Lynch can do.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:10 pm 
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Just posted in another thread that Ian Wharton from BR has sources telling him Clay is very likely to be re-signed.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:20 pm 
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Quote:
The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson reports the Dolphins and free agent Charles Clay are "in active negotiations" regarding a new contract.
Clay seems to be the Dolphins' top priority to get re-signed before free agency opens March 10. There's said to be "cautious optimism" that a deal will get done. If Clay reaches the open market, Miami's chances of re-signing him would plummet, as there are reportedly a number of teams ready to chase him. Clay is expected to command $6 million annually on his new deal. He turned 27 last week.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 5:42 am 
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Finhead34 wrote:
That is amazing to me that the number $6 Million dollars a season is being breathed out in order to potentially keep Clay. I say no way to that number. Heck, $5 Million a season is probably too much too and more so because last year he was hurt just about the entire season. Don't get me wrong, I definitely want him back, but if the money gets ridiculous, unfortunately I say let him go sign elsewhere. I am with Swerve, if push comes to shove, keep progressing with Sims and see what Lynch can do.

My question on resigning him is he going to get better or have we seen the best he has? For some reason he always leaves me wanting more.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 7:56 am 
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My question on resigning him is he going to get better or have we seen the best he has? For some reason he always leaves me wanting more.



For 6 million a season, you would hope for more breakout stats. I don't know what those numbers should be but thus far his best season was 2013 where he caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns. I am probably being too aggressive with my numbers, but for the kind of money he may get paid now, I would like to see that 1000 yards range and 10-12 touchdowns out of Clay.

No question, if he stays healthy and Lazor works the ball to him that it is possible, but I struggle with the worth of $6 million per year, if that is what it ends up being.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:59 am 
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Finhead34 wrote:
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My question on resigning him is he going to get better or have we seen the best he has? For some reason he always leaves me wanting more.



For 6 million a season, you would hope for more breakout stats. I don't know what those numbers should be but thus far his best season was 2013 where he caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns. I am probably being too aggressive with my numbers, but for the kind of money he may get paid now, I would like to see that 1000 yards range and 10-12 touchdowns out of Clay.

No question, if he stays healthy and Lazor works the ball to him that it is possible, but I struggle with the worth of $6 million per year, if that is what it ends up being.


The thing is Fin, there are 2 TEs in the league that do those numbers on a fairly consistent basis, Gronk and Graham, they make 9 and 10 mil respectively.

In spite of being slowed due to being injured and only playing in 14 games, Clay posted the 12th highest catch total among TE's, he's only 26, he has progressed as a player every year, even though he was hampered this year he continued to progress as a blocker.

6 mil is about where he falls, and if he comes out next year and catches 70 passes and puts up 7-8 TDs, it's worth it, and he's easily capable of doing that and more.

6 mil would put him at 10th in the league, and before the season started he'd be even lower than that, and prior to 2016 even lower than that, so the question is Fin, how many TE's in the league are better than Clay?

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:18 pm 
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Finhead34 wrote:
but for the kind of money he may get paid now, I would like to see that 1000 yards range and 10-12 touchdowns out of Clay.


Those are #1 WR numbers and a bit unrealistic for TEs.

If Clay is a big part of the offense then I'm okay with 6 million. Sometimes its not just the yards. In the victory over NE in 2013 Clay caught a 4th down pass for something like 5 or 6 yards. It was a bad throw but he made an incredible play to keep the game alive for Miami. A lot of lumbering TEs wouldn't make that play.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:53 pm 
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I can see a 5 year $30 million type deal happening.....

Something that would factor like:

$4 million signing bonus
Year 1- $2 million
Year 2- $4 million
Year 3 - $4.5 million
Year 4- $5.5 million
Year 5 - 7 million

With the remaining $3 million hitting as incentives...... Seems fairly reasonable where the cap numbers wouldnt get to the $6 million mark until Year 3...


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 6:40 pm 
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Quote:
I can see a 5 year $30 million type deal happening.....

Something that would factor like:

$4 million signing bonus
Year 1- $2 million
Year 2- $4 million
Year 3 - $4.5 million
Year 4- $5.5 million
Year 5 - 7 million

With the remaining $3 million hitting as incentives...... Seems fairly reasonable where the cap numbers wouldnt get to the $6 million mark until Year 3...


I agree with a creative contract for Clay for sure in order to keep him.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 6:44 pm 
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Finster, just the other day you were saying $5 million. Now $6 Million is ok to you (Yes, I read your posts, ha ha) I definitely want Clay back, bottom line, however, I still think $6 Million per season is a bit steep IMO.

Here is a collective list of 28 tight ends in the NFL. Realistically and overall , where does Clay actually rank? These are not in specific order.


1 Jimmy Graham, NO
2 Julius Thomas, DEN
3 Rob Gronkowski, NE
4 Vernon Davis, SF 8
5 Jordan Cameron, CLE
6 Dennis Pitta, BAL 11
7 Jason Witten, DAL
8 Greg Olsen, CAR 12
9 Jordan Reed, WAS
10 Kyle Rudolph, MIN
11 Charles Clay, MIA
12 Zach Ertz, PHI 7
13 Martellus Bennett, CHI
14 Antonio Gates, SD
15 Heath Miller, PIT 12
16 Timothy Wright, NE
17 Dwayne Allen, IND
18 Ladarius Green, SD
19 Travis Kelce, KC 6
20 Tyler Eifert, CIN 4
21 Delanie Walker, TEN
22 Eric Ebron, DET 9
23 Coby Fleener, IND
24 Owen Daniels, BAL 11
25 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB 7
26 Jace Amaro, NYJ 11
27 Jared Cook, STL 4
28 Garrett Graham, HOU


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:26 am 
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It may be a tad overpriced, but $6m isn't enough for me to walk away from Clay completely.

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:56 am 
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Finhead34 wrote:
Finster, just the other day you were saying $5 million. Now $6 Million is ok to you (Yes, I read your posts, ha ha) I definitely want Clay back, bottom line, however, I still think $6 Million per season is a bit steep IMO.

Here is a collective list of 28 tight ends in the NFL. Realistically and overall , where does Clay actually rank? These are not in specific order.


1 Jimmy Graham, NO
2 Julius Thomas, DEN
3 Rob Gronkowski, NE
4 Vernon Davis, SF 8
5 Jordan Cameron, CLE
6 Dennis Pitta, BAL 11
7 Jason Witten, DAL
8 Greg Olsen, CAR 12
9 Jordan Reed, WAS
10 Kyle Rudolph, MIN
11 Charles Clay, MIA
12 Zach Ertz, PHI 7
13 Martellus Bennett, CHI
14 Antonio Gates, SD
15 Heath Miller, PIT 12
16 Timothy Wright, NE
17 Dwayne Allen, IND
18 Ladarius Green, SD
19 Travis Kelce, KC 6
20 Tyler Eifert, CIN 4
21 Delanie Walker, TEN
22 Eric Ebron, DET 9
23 Coby Fleener, IND
24 Owen Daniels, BAL 11
25 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB 7
26 Jace Amaro, NYJ 11
27 Jared Cook, STL 4
28 Garrett Graham, HOU


I would put him in the 10-15 range, and yes I would rather pay him 5, but as I said in that comment, 6 would be my max. I think that makes him slightly overpaid. In all honesty, that injury may have gotten us a great deal, if he had been healthy and posted similar numbers to 2013 he would be getting around 8 mil imo.

Clay is actually kind of a unique player, he's like a huge RB that catches passes, and that's how he creates mismatches, he's a legit TE weapon, and paying him slightly over where he would be ranked is a good deal in todays market, and as of next year this time, if he continues to perform the way we all know he can, then he won't be overpaid because the price goes up every year.

In the past 2 years Clay is second only to Wallace in TDs with 9, and rec with 127, he's a very important piece of the puzzle, and not so easily replaced, it's not like he's an avg TE, one of many to be plucked from the street, he has a unique skill set, I'd hate to spend the next couple years trying to replace him.

He's not perfect, he's not Gronk, and 6 mil would be my limit, but I'd pay the 6 mil to keep some homegrown talent in house that helps me win games, since 6 isn't exactly breaking the bank either.

I respect your opinion if you disagree, these are just my reasonings on paying him.

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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:31 pm 
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I tend to think he'll be gone. He makes some amazing plays, but he's just not a big part of the offense. Last year, he only had one game over 100 yds.........averaging 3.6 catches and 38 yds per game. His numbers did pickup in the 2nd half of the season, but no where close to being a top 10 TE. I put his cap at something under $5M/yr.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:18 pm 
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The Denver Post's Mike Klis expects the Broncos to have some interest in free agent Charles Clay.
Julius Thomas is expected to walk in free agency and leave the Broncos for a big-money deal. He's likely looking for $8 million-plus annually, while Clay should slot in around the $6 million range. Clay seems like the better fit for coach Gary Kubiak's offense as a finesse player who can line up at multiple spots.
Related: Broncos


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:16 am 
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Hes a difference maker when healthy. Remember thatf ourth down catch and run against new england? Or the game against the steelers? Hes versatile and you cant have too many guys with yards after catch ability. He brings that. Id pay him whatever he wants. He knows the system and with hartline and gibson leaving you cant havet oo much turnover. Tannehill is comfortable with clay. Why change that?


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:31 am 
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I like Clay but he was injured and limited almost every week this year and Tannehill still set career highs. Definitely would not give him whatever he wants. I liked what I was seeing from Sims down the stretch and we could add another talented h-back in the draft.


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 Post subject: Re: Clay for 6 Million?
PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:19 am 
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Finster wrote:
Finhead34 wrote:
Quote:
My question on resigning him is he going to get better or have we seen the best he has? For some reason he always leaves me wanting more.



For 6 million a season, you would hope for more breakout stats. I don't know what those numbers should be but thus far his best season was 2013 where he caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns. I am probably being too aggressive with my numbers, but for the kind of money he may get paid now, I would like to see that 1000 yards range and 10-12 touchdowns out of Clay.

No question, if he stays healthy and Lazor works the ball to him that it is possible, but I struggle with the worth of $6 million per year, if that is what it ends up being.


The thing is Fin, there are 2 TEs in the league that do those numbers on a fairly consistent basis, Gronk and Graham, they make 9 and 10 mil respectively.

In spite of being slowed due to being injured and only playing in 14 games, Clay posted the 12th highest catch total among TE's, he's only 26, he has progressed as a player every year, even though he was hampered this year he continued to progress as a blocker.

6 mil is about where he falls, and if he comes out next year and catches 70 passes and puts up 7-8 TDs, it's worth it, and he's easily capable of doing that and more.

6 mil would put him at 10th in the league, and before the season started he'd be even lower than that, and prior to 2016 even lower than that, so the question is Fin, how many TE's in the league are better than Clay?


Agree with Finster on this one. Given the poor draft for TEs and not much in free agency it is better to go with the devil you know.

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