Tim Graham wrote:
Using 2010 statistical projections from ESPN.com's fantasy analysts, Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell and I pick over or under for three players from each AFC East team. http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/14813/over-or-under-miami-dolphins
Quarterback Chad Henne, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
My take: OVER and OVER. I'm tempted to go under on touchdowns, but I can see the Dolphins opening up their offense not only because of Marshall's presence, but also because their backfield has a lot of question marks. Ronnie Brown has trouble staying healthy, and Ricky Williams is 33. Henne's natural development should give Sparano and offensive coordinator Dan Henning more confidence to pass. For that same reason, Henne's interception projection looks low to me. He wasn't a prolific thrower last year (17th in attempts per game), yet tied for 11th in interceptions thrown with 14.
Running back Ricky Williams, 878 rushing yards
My take: UNDER. I hate to lower expectations for my meditation buddy, but his 2009 was off-the-charts unusual. I believe Williams can have another big season. But overs and unders are about betting on an outcome, and I think too many factors can trip him up. Williams' reps will go down if a) he starts to play like he's 33 years old, b) he suffers an injury, c) Brown can stay on the field, d) the Dolphins turn into more of a passing team.
Receiver Brandon Marshall, 104 receptions
My take: UNDER. I believe Marshall will have a fantastic season, but for the same reasons as Bill listed, I don't see him catching 104 passes. Nothing indicates the Dolphins will have 1984 flashbacks and start slinging the ball all over the place. Football operations boss Bill Parcells never has believed in it. The Dolphins' offensive personnel was assembled to run. That's not to say they won't air it out more this year. I predict they will. But for Marshall to record 104 receptions, the Dolphins would have to change their identity completely. A more reasonable total for me is about 90 receptions for Marshall.
I agree with everything except the over for Henne's INTs. I think with Pennington mentoring him, Henne is going to develop into a very good quarterback who makes minimal mistakes. I'd say that 10-11 INTs is just about right for this season.