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 A Case for the deep ball 
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
jammer wrote:
Anyone else find it comical that a windy day in Buffalo when Chad Henne didn't turn the ball over, completed 60% of his passes, and Brandon Marshall produced 8 receptions (some very tough) with some YAC, has become the defining game of this season that has proven to some that Chad Henne is Chad Pennington and that Brandon Marshall is supposed to be Ted Ginn (with the ability to catch of course) ?

ONE GAME, and the first of the season for that matter. You can say you expected more but for the love of Don Shula exercise some patience that it can get better production-wise.


Knee JERKS....

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Well it is a discussion board, so its not like we come here to lurk silently waiting for next sunday..

A guy was just posting parts of an article that had some stats regarding deep passing, something that the Miami offense has lacked for far longer than one game if I am remembering correctly...

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Wed Sep 15, 2010 12:48 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
10acjed wrote:
A guy was just posting parts of an article that had some stats regarding deep passing...


And a few of us dispute the idea that it is deep passing at all.


Wed Sep 15, 2010 12:50 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
10acjed wrote:
Well it is a discussion board, so its not like we come here to lurk silently waiting for next sunday..

A guy was just posting parts of an article that had some stats regarding deep passing, something that the Miami offense has lacked for far longer than one game if I am remembering correctly...


So I guess you think those that agreed with the premise should be the only ones to reply to it and those that disagree should have no right to voice that disagreement?

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Wed Sep 15, 2010 12:56 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Rich wrote:
jammer wrote:
Anyone else find it comical that a windy day in Buffalo when Chad Henne didn't turn the ball over, completed 60% of his passes, and Brandon Marshall produced 8 receptions (some very tough) with some YAC, has become the defining game of this season that has proven to some that Chad Henne is Chad Pennington and that Brandon Marshall is supposed to be Ted Ginn (with the ability to catch of course) ?

ONE GAME, and the first of the season for that matter. You can say you expected more but for the love of Don Shula exercise some patience that it can get better production-wise.


Knee JERKS....


It's not really like that Jammer. My beef is Henning. I know what Chad "can" do, and he is no Pennington. I know what Marshall "can" do and he is not Ginn. My beef is with what they "are" doing. I personally think it has more to do with Henning, but I can't give any type of informed opinion on that.

The only think I know is that deep throwing teams have been winning Super Bowls for over a decade with an anomaly here and there. That's my only point. Numbers don't lie. I know there are a million other factors, but this looks like a sure start.

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
I was referring to the "exercise some patience" line really....

I think any Dolphin fan has to be patient at this point... Unless you just came around a few seasons ago.....

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Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:00 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Ski_Money wrote:
The only think I know is that deep throwing teams have been winning Super Bowls for over a decade with an anomaly here and there. That's my only point. Numbers don't lie. I know there are a million other factors, but this looks like a sure start.


No, you don't know that deep throwing teams have been winning Superbowls for over a decade. You're being misled by the YPA stat into thinking that these teams have the ball travel farther through the air when that is not necessarily always the case.

I bet you that the majority of these teams find more passing success throwing accurate short and intermediate passes, allowing their receivers to make plays after the catch, than chucking it downfield 30+ yards.

Actually, I'm sure if you dug a little deeper you'd find that the more often a QB chucks the ball downfield the less efficient his numbers get.

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
So what you're saying is, I should go dig through the numbers looking for YPA minus YAC....

I'm sure somebody tracks that crap.

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Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:08 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Ski_Money wrote:
So what you're saying is, I should go dig through the numbers looking for YPA minus YAC....

I'm sure somebody tracks that crap.


K.C. Joyner probably does.

He actually wrote an article about how bad the numbers look for the best QBs when they throw deep.

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Rich wrote:
Actually, I'm sure if you dug a little deeper you'd find that the more often a QB chucks the ball downfield the less efficient his numbers get.


Not just the percentage going down, but also the INT's increase dramatically.


Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:19 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
10acjed wrote:
Well it is a discussion board, so its not like we come here to lurk silently waiting for next sunday..

A guy was just posting parts of an article that had some stats regarding deep passing, something that the Miami offense has lacked for far longer than one game if I am remembering correctly...


Actually Chad Henne was throwing deeper passes pretty much over the last 6 games of last season. Its those games when he forced those throws and chucked up deep passes he had more INTs than TDs and saw mixed results in the win/loss column. So to say just one game isn't too accurate.

If people actually exercise patience they can see the forest through the trees. You can say it sucked that Henne didn't have 250 yds and 2 TDs, and that the offense looked pedestrian, that I agree with. But the catch (or multiple ones) are that it was the first game of the year, throwing conditions weren't great, the offense still needs to build a rhythm, Buffalo has a very good/ turnover capable secondary, and Chad Henne is still a pup learning to trust both himself and his receivers.

If 6 games from now the team is 2-5, Henne is "captain checkdown" while his receivers are running better routes, and he isn't showing any remote signs of improvement (trust, reads, touch, etc) then I think the grumbling is legit.

Exercising patience isn't being quiet, its avoiding the all or nothing approach in your commentary after one game.


Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:50 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
More research:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar ... A_passing_

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar ... back!.html

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Here's some air yards I found for 2008, and a good read.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01 ... -2008.html

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball


I did like your 2nd link, especially because Favre, Marino and Elway, probably the three best guys known for air mail, were not on the list.

You could have the highest YPA of all time and not put a pass more than 10 yards through the air. Hell if you went 20-20 and every pass was 7 yards but your WR got about 5 yards in YAC after each one you'd be killing that list.

We get the point that good passing wins games, but this is becoming an apples and oranges argument. I think three of the guys on your YPA list are known as big time deep passers. Deep throws and great YPA are not synonymous.

I'll go back to my early point. If Henne can play smart ala Brady and turn short throws into long gains like Brady did when he led the league in passing and won Super Bowls, then he's off to a better start than most QB's. When he builds trust in himself and his guys and incorporates deep passes on a more regular basis he will be the franchise guy for the next decade plus.


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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
10acjed wrote:
NFLJunkie wrote:
Is anyone really that delusional to think we can compete at the next level and go all the way if we play like we have been?


Since every season is different, and we only have 1 game under our belts, my answer is yes.

We won the game. If we continue to do whatever is needed to win, then yes, we too can have a SB bound team.

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
eleaf wrote:
10acjed wrote:
NFLJunkie wrote:
Is anyone really that delusional to think we can compete at the next level and go all the way if we play like we have been?


Since every season is different, and we only have 1 game under our belts, my answer is yes.

We won the game. If we continue to do whatever is needed to win, then yes, we too can have a SB bound team.


While I agree with the statement that this team will not go anywhere if they don't find the deep ball....I don't think that is my quote.

So I guess Miami doesn't have a deep threat so we're doomed to miss the playoffs....again. Why did we trade Ted Ginn again...dang that braintrust...always screwing things up. :hithead:


Wed Sep 15, 2010 4:22 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
BTW...whomever posted that the video only shows Marshall getting good YAC on short throws....needs to finish watching. The entire last half of the video are balls thrown over 25 yds. My point in this is simple. BMarsh is never covered. Never. The quicker Henne learns that concept the better the passing game will be.


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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
No one said the deep pass shouldn't be done and no one said Marshall can't run deep patterns or didn't show any on that video. No matter how many times we try you will just keep disagreeing and thinking it means dink and dunk forever.

Brandon Marshall's specialty is shorter routes that produce YAC. Chad Henne is at the stage where he needs to work on confidence and consistency. Those two statements do not equate to advocating against throwing the deep ball, they just mean that it doesn't have to be as significant in the offense at this point in the season and Henne's development.

You keep saying YPA. Its been proven that good YPA comes from consistent, accurate throws, not deep passes. The biggest deep pass guys weren't even on your list.


Wed Sep 15, 2010 5:53 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
jammer wrote:


I did like your 2nd link, especially because Favre, Marino and Elway, probably the three best guys known for air mail, were not on the list.

You could have the highest YPA of all time and not put a pass more than 10 yards through the air. Hell if you went 20-20 and every pass was 7 yards but your WR got about 5 yards in YAC after each one you'd be killing that list.

We get the point that good passing wins games, but this is becoming an apples and oranges argument. I think three of the guys on your YPA list are known as big time deep passers. Deep throws and great YPA are not synonymous.

I'll go back to my early point. If Henne can play smart ala Brady and turn short throws into long gains like Brady did when he led the league in passing and won Super Bowls, then he's off to a better start than most QB's. When he builds trust in himself and his guys and incorporates deep passes on a more regular basis he will be the franchise guy for the next decade plus.



Favre, Marino and Elway...

Again i'd like to point out that 3500 yards with 8.4 YPA and a good run game is a ton more effective than 5000 with 9.0 YPA and no run game (see 1984 Montana vs Marino).

Moral there is, you keep implying that I'm suggesting we make the deep ball the main part of our offense. I'm not. Run run run is our offense. My argument is, with a 5yrd passing game regardless of YAC or potential YAC, the offense will be dink and dunk and not move the ball (see Buffalo game) because that crap is stupid easy to defend (even for Buffalo). Sending a few down the field (20+ air time) per game is the only tried and true method to make the offense as a whole (run and pass) more effective. That's what all this really points to. 3 or 4 deep passes a game is enough to bring the YPA up to 7-9 (seems to be the tipping point). If only one of those connects, you're talking about a game changing play. We sent one ball down the field against Buffalo. And it hurt. 15 points is WAY under what our talent capability is.

Again, my point, and the point of most of this research is: Send em deep, and all the short stuff (run included) will be easy money. The short passes will yield more YAC when the safeties are deep (see Wes Welker) and the offense will steam roll down the field. Connect on a deep ball and omg...

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Wed Sep 15, 2010 7:17 pm
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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Ski, you do realize Buffalo has one of the best secondaries in the NFL right?

They have Leodis McKelvin, a good aggressive young corner. Terrence McGee, a fast corner who can make game changing plays such as pick 6s. Drayton Florence, a solid NFL CB, Jaruis Byrd, a 2nd year player who put up 9 picks his rookie year, and DOnte Whitner, a young solid tackler and free safety.

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
jammer wrote:
No one said the deep pass shouldn't be done and no one said Marshall can't run deep patterns or didn't show any on that video. No matter how many times we try you will just keep disagreeing and thinking it means dink and dunk forever.

Brandon Marshall's specialty is shorter routes that produce YAC. Chad Henne is at the stage where he needs to work on confidence and consistency. Those two statements do not equate to advocating against throwing the deep ball, they just mean that it doesn't have to be as significant in the offense at this point in the season and Henne's development.

You keep saying YPA. Its been proven that good YPA comes from consistent, accurate throws, not deep passes. The biggest deep pass guys weren't even on your list.


Who are you addressing? Look, Ski started the thread with some stats that showed the top teams also have a top YPC. Rich chimed in with Miami doesn't have a deep threat. I simply addressed that by showing he was wrong. Marshall could be the most complete WR in the NFL. He is the entire package...not just a short game with good YAC. He dominates his compeitition and is what you want him to be.


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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
NFLJunkie wrote:
jammer wrote:
No one said the deep pass shouldn't be done and no one said Marshall can't run deep patterns or didn't show any on that video. No matter how many times we try you will just keep disagreeing and thinking it means dink and dunk forever.

Brandon Marshall's specialty is shorter routes that produce YAC. Chad Henne is at the stage where he needs to work on confidence and consistency. Those two statements do not equate to advocating against throwing the deep ball, they just mean that it doesn't have to be as significant in the offense at this point in the season and Henne's development.

You keep saying YPA. Its been proven that good YPA comes from consistent, accurate throws, not deep passes. The biggest deep pass guys weren't even on your list.


Who are you addressing? Look, Ski started the thread with some stats that showed the top teams also have a top YPC. Rich chimed in with Miami doesn't have a deep threat. I simply addressed that by showing he was wrong. Marshall could be the most complete WR in the NFL. He is the entire package...not just a short game with good YAC. He dominates his compeitition and is what you want him to be.


My God, you're in that delusional state you enter when you run out of facts, which is usually within your second post in the thread.

Marshall is a great talent, but he is not Andre Johnson. THAT is a deep threat. A guy who can vertically threaten the defense and create separation. Marshall is primarily a short to intermediate guy who does wonders with the ball after he catches it. Has he caught some deep balls? Yes of course he has. As I said earlier, even slow butt possession receivers like Oronde Gadsden catch deep balls. Your 7 minute HIGHLIGHT (meaning only the good plays) video of a 4 year career prove absolutely nothing.

Marshall's stats prove more. 11.1 yards per catch last season.

Let's see what some legitimate deep threats do.

Andre Johnson - 15.5 ypc
Randy Moss - 15.2 ypc
Greg Jennings - 16.4 ypc
Sidney Rice - 15.8 ypc
Miles Austin - 16.3 ypc
Santonio Holmes - 15.8 ypc
Vincent Jackson - 17.2 ypc
Desean Jackson - 18.6 ypc

Let's compare to guys who are considered more "possession" receivers.

Wes Welker - 11.0
Reggie Wayne - 12.6
Steve Smith (Giants) - 11.4
Hines Wards - 12.3

See those things I just posted? They are called FACTs and the fact is that Marshall's YPC more closely resembles those of the top possession receivers in the NFL, not those of the top deep threats in the NFL.

Can Marshall run deep routes, get open and catch? Absolutely. So can Reggie Wayne. BUt the deep threat on Indy is Pierre Garcon, not Reggie Wayne.

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Post Re: A Case for the deep ball
Got Ski and Junkie mixed on that last post.

Sending deep and throwing deep are two seperate things. They are sending guys on deeper patterns, just not throwing to them unnecessarily. If only the short throws are open then you hit your short targets. There will be games when they take more shots down field, they just didn't need to on Sunday and may shy away from it until Henne can be consistent doing it.

Marshall isn't a deep threat receiver and its not what he was brought here to be. He is a big target to create YAC and produce Red Zone TD's.


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