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 Post subject: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:00 pm 
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The old adage that good teams make their own luck is often true. The Jets are living proof that luck plays a huge role in wins and losses. The Detroit Game was given to the Jets on a silver platter. Gift wrapped by not running out the clock, and a late hit OB the win was one the Jets didn't deserve. What team loses its kicker and QB in the same game. Then decides a 350lb DT is the best guy to try the extra point. Really?

Miami has had some of the dumbest bad luck this season.

First they lose a couple of contributing rookies for the year. Then they lose a couple of starters to a mysterious illness ... for a month!!!! Then after pulling off the impossible by going 2-0 they lose a close game to the Jets because of a blocked punt. Simple football execution, not so simple for Miami. The ST woes continue for another week as NE exploited the weakness and even planned the same style of block on a FG and a punt. Throw in nagging injuries to Jake Long and Vernon Carey and life in Miami got interesting. The bad luck continued with the refs pretty much handing Pittsburgh a game winning FG...all because they were too quick to call a non-TD a TD. Miami seemed to get on track by winning at Cinncinnatti but then got beat pretty good by a good Ravens Team.

So at 4-4..where are they. IMHO - they're in good position. Let's look at the remaining games and make a few assumptions.

1. They have no choice but to beat Tennessee. Tough task but with their conference record being abysmal, another loss to a competitor for the wildcard would be devastating.

Tennessee - a tough win

Home - Chicago - Win

Away - Raiders - tough win

Home - Cleveland - Win

Away - Jets - Win

Home - Buffalo - Win

Home - Detroit - Win

Away - NE - Loss


This is the best case scenario and a loss next week or at NY or to any of the other teams would mean a 10-6 or worse record and missing the post-season altogether.

The Jets can't remain this lucky the entire season. I suppose it could happen but for real it is hard for me to believe it will happen. Miami's luck, conversely, can't be that bad all season. At some point it has to turn. I could be wrong but I think this team will close strong.

The Jets can't remain this


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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:08 pm 
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I refuse to chalk up this season's mediocre play to bad luck.

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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:12 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 6:41 pm
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Very little to do with luck. Miami is 4-4 because they let opportunities to put points on the board slip away. They failed to put the Steelers away. They failed on the pass to Fasano today, failed to convert a third down on a dropped pass by Brown, failed to catch an interception that would have gone for six today and changed the scope of that game. How many times is Chris Clemons going to let an interception hit him in the hands and drop it?

All of those things aren't luck. It's not coaching. It's execution. And right now, the Dolphins are not executing. When you do those things, you make your own luck.


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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:06 am 
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Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 5:08 am 
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NFLJunkie wrote:
Tennessee - a tough win
Home - Chicago - Win
Away - Raiders - tough win
Home - Cleveland - Win
Away - Jets - Win
Home - Buffalo - Win
Home - Detroit - Win
Away - NE - Loss


Man, that is a VERY optimistic outlook, Junkie. I hope you are right, but I see at least 3 losses (Titans, Jets, Patriots) and the Raiders, Browns, Bills, and Lions have upped their game and are showing enough improvement to beat us as well.

Unless the Dolphins figure out their end zone problems and defense gets back on track, it could be another top 15 draft position for us next year. I would say that it is a real shame that our round 1 rookie is out. It is as if we didn't have a first round pick this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 5:38 am 
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Rich wrote:
Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.


I have to agree with Rich on this one. I think Miami still needs to improve in the following areas.

RB (Ronnie and Ricky won't be here much longer)
Interior OL
Secondary
Pass Rush help for Wake
TE
Deep threat WR
Special Teams (return man & tackling)
Red Zone TD production

Henning still has the training wheels on his offensive play calling. I am dying to see them attack more down field 15 yards + especially on 1st downs. I am sick of the conservative philosophy of don't make mistakes and dump the ball on check offs. I want to see the bomb thrown 3 to 4 times a game even if they don't complete it. I want to see them use Bess and Marshall more on 1st and 2nd downs. I want to see Henne get quicker with his decision making.

I think Miami has made great strides over the last 3 years with building a core team. But there are still many areas that need a play maker. I think 8-8 or 9-7 is the best we can hope for this season.


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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 6:29 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 4:37 pm
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Location: Orlando, Fl
NFLJunkie wrote:
The old adage that good teams make their own luck is often true. The Jets are living proof that luck plays a huge role in wins and losses. The Detroit Game was given to the Jets on a silver platter. Gift wrapped by not running out the clock, and a late hit OB the win was one the Jets didn't deserve. What team loses its kicker and QB in the same game. Then decides a 350lb DT is the best guy to try the extra point. Really?

Miami has had some of the dumbest bad luck this season.

First they lose a couple of contributing rookies for the year. Then they lose a couple of starters to a mysterious illness ... for a month!!!! Then after pulling off the impossible by going 2-0 they lose a close game to the Jets because of a blocked punt. Simple football execution, not so simple for Miami. The ST woes continue for another week as NE exploited the weakness and even planned the same style of block on a FG and a punt. Throw in nagging injuries to Jake Long and Vernon Carey and life in Miami got interesting. The bad luck continued with the refs pretty much handing Pittsburgh a game winning FG...all because they were too quick to call a non-TD a TD. Miami seemed to get on track by winning at Cinncinnatti but then got beat pretty good by a good Ravens Team.

So at 4-4..where are they. IMHO - they're in good position. Let's look at the remaining games and make a few assumptions.

1. They have no choice but to beat Tennessee. Tough task but with their conference record being abysmal, another loss to a competitor for the wildcard would be devastating.

Tennessee - a tough win

Home - Chicago - Win

Away - Raiders - tough win

Home - Cleveland - Win

Away - Jets - Win

Home - Buffalo - Win

Home - Detroit - Win

Away - NE - Loss


This is the best case scenario and a loss next week or at NY or to any of the other teams would mean a 10-6 or worse record and missing the post-season altogether.

The Jets can't remain this lucky the entire season. I suppose it could happen but for real it is hard for me to believe it will happen. Miami's luck, conversely, can't be that bad all season. At some point it has to turn. I could be wrong but I think this team will close strong.

The Jets can't remain this


I agree but I will be very shocked and surprised if we go 7-1 in the second half of the season. But I agree the first half of the season was definitely more challenging and they survived going 500.


Besides the obvious division games, the Titans, Raiders, and Browns games have become huge because of their potential playoff tiebreaker scenarios.


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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:15 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:47 am
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Miami has been good at beating teams they should beat. I wouldn't bury them just yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:30 am 
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Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:10 am
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There is no such thing as luck. You win if you score more points than your opponent, simple as that.


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 Post subject: Re: Unlucky?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:41 am 
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Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 1:04 pm
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Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.


Thank you. You could even say that we were lucky to beat Minn, Buff, and GB as well.


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