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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 3:29 am 
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The Dolphins have been without a franchise quarterback for the past decade. Every year around draft time we all sit down and debate whether taking a quarterback in the first round is the right or wrong answer. Now everyone has heard the expression that the NFL draft is for the most part a crap shoot, you always hear NFL coaches and general managers say it. In the first round of the NFL draft there have been 14 hits and 14 busts over the past decade according to my math. So if you draft a quarterback in the 1st round you have a 50/50 shot (50%) at finding yourself a starter/franchise quarterback. So actually the 1st round is more of a coin toss when talking about quarterbacks.

Solid Starters/Franchise Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1 (14)
2010: Sam Bradford
2009: Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: None
2006: Jay Cutler
2005: Aaron Rodgers
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger
2003: Carson Palmer
2002: None
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington

Busts/Backups Drafted in Round 1 (14)
2010: Tim Tebow
2009: None
2008: None
2007: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart
2005: Alex Smith, Jason Campbell
2004: J.P. Losman
2003: Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: None
2000: None

I've kept Henne and Clausen out of this debate in order to avoid the debate that they are busts because I think they are both too early on to call official busts. So taking in mind that you have a 50% chance of finding a starter in the 1st round, here are the numbers for quarterbacks taken in the 2nd round:

Solid Starters/Franchise Quarterbacks (1)
2010: None
2009: None
2008: None
2007: None
2006: None
2005: None
2004: None
2003: None
2002: None
2001: Drew Brees
2000: None

Busts/Backups (6)
2010: None
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: None
2005: None
2004: None
2003: None
2002: None
2001: Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: None

So based on this theory you have a 16% chance of finding a franchise quarterback in the 2nd round, that % only goes down the higher the rounds go. There are six sides to a dice meaning rolling a dice you mathematically have a 16% chance of hitting any one side of that dice. So it's fair to say quarterbacks taken in rounds three through seven are a roll of the dice. So make your own judgement but going on pure numbers you are more than three times more likely to find a solid starter or franchise quarterback in the first round than you are the rest of the draft.

So to summarize, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is a coin toss(50%), drafting a quarterback from rounds 3-7 is a roll of the dice(16%). Personally I'd rather toss a coin.
:grin:


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:01 am 
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Id say its too early to tell on any QB taken in the last 2 drafts unless they have started their first two seasons... And even then we should consider the team they play on..

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:46 pm 
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Michael Vick won how many playoff games with the Falcons? Then left them in shambles.......I wouldn't be so quick to call him a "solid starter/franchise QB" after one good season with Philly.

Chad Pennington? Solid starter? For what, 2 season?
Jay Cutler? Solid starter? For what, 2 seasons?

Ok.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:02 pm 
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Iowafin wrote:
Michael Vick won how many playoff games with the Falcons? Then left them in shambles.......I wouldn't be so quick to call him a "solid starter/franchise QB" after one good season with Philly.

Chad Pennington? Solid starter? For what, 2 season?
Jay Cutler? Solid starter? For what, 2 seasons?

Ok.



Not too mention Clausen & Henne are "too early to tell" and Tebow is on the Backup/Bust list...

I would imagine its a bit early to say he is ether... He has just not been "Officially" named the starter.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:42 pm 
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First, you're using a sample size of only a decade when there are guys still playing or eligible to play that were drafted prior to 2000.

Second, you are not including any of the other rounds that provided hits and misses.

Third, you're already defining 1st round QBs who have played three years or less but giving Henne and Clausen a pass. For Example what happens if Josh Johnson goes to SF and catches fire Harbaugh, or Stanton takes over and succeeds for the oft injured Stafford, or Kolb is traded and succeeds? Will Mark Sanchez's luck remain? Could Flacco or Freeman become Daunte Culpepper?

I see where you are going with this, but there are too many variables to make anything definitive.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 7:54 pm 
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Mark Sanchez as a solid starter/franchise quarterback is laughable, too.

35 TD's (rushing and throwing), 33 picks, 4 fumbles lost

Career passer rating of 70.2

For perspective, Henne's rating is 75.3 and he's the worst quarterback in the league <sarcasm

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:08 pm 
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Why is Tim Tebow a bust after one season? Not that I like him but talk about making an inconsistent argument.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:10 pm 
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Great post WK.

You want a franchise QB? Go get the elite prospect. Don't settle for somebody who has some of the tools in the 2nd or 3rd round.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:11 pm 
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^ lol

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:12 pm 
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wkloiber13 wrote:
So to summarize, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is a coin toss(50%), drafting a quarterback from rounds 3-7 is a roll of the dice(16%). Personally I'd rather toss a coin.
:grin:



There is one aspect you're not looking at.

You can take QBs in the later rounds and fail and your franchise can recover.

You can take a QB in the first round and if you get the wrong side of the coin, it may stunt your franchise for years.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:14 pm 
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Rich wrote:
wkloiber13 wrote:
So to summarize, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is a coin toss(50%), drafting a quarterback from rounds 3-7 is a roll of the dice(16%). Personally I'd rather toss a coin.
:grin:



There is one aspect you're not looking at.

You can take QBs in the later rounds and fail and your franchise can recover.

You can take a QB in the first round and if you get the wrong side of the coin, it may stunt your franchise for years.


Not really. If you take one in the later rounds and he doesn't pan out, you still don't have one....A 1st round RB, or CB, or LT or whatever won't save you...


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:16 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Rich wrote:
wkloiber13 wrote:
So to summarize, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is a coin toss(50%), drafting a quarterback from rounds 3-7 is a roll of the dice(16%). Personally I'd rather toss a coin.
:grin:



There is one aspect you're not looking at.

You can take QBs in the later rounds and fail and your franchise can recover.

You can take a QB in the first round and if you get the wrong side of the coin, it may stunt your franchise for years.


Not really. If you take one in the later rounds and he doesn't pan out, you still don't have one....A 1st round RB, or CB, or LT or whatever won't save you...


If you take a QB in the first round, he costs more money, ties up more cap space, and if you get rid of him early, creates a large amount of dead cap. You are more likely to invest more time in him because you invested a high pick on him.

Look where the teams that invested high picks in QBs that failed are. Oakland, San Francisco, Cleveland, Buffalo etc.

Doormats.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:19 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Rich wrote:
wkloiber13 wrote:
So to summarize, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is a coin toss(50%), drafting a quarterback from rounds 3-7 is a roll of the dice(16%). Personally I'd rather toss a coin.
:grin:



There is one aspect you're not looking at.

You can take QBs in the later rounds and fail and your franchise can recover.

You can take a QB in the first round and if you get the wrong side of the coin, it may stunt your franchise for years.


Not really. If you take one in the later rounds and he doesn't pan out, you still don't have one....A 1st round RB, or CB, or LT or whatever won't save you...


This is true, but you also have Deion Sanders on your roster when you draft Peyton Manning. QB seems to be the most bustable (word?) 1st rd position, but that is due in part to the very low numbers of grade A QBs period.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:19 pm 
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Quote:
If you take a QB in the first round, he costs more money, ties up more cap space, and if you get rid of him early, creates a large amount of dead cap. You are more likely to invest more time in him because you invested a high pick on him.

Look where the teams that invested high picks in QBs that failed are. Oakland, San Francisco, Cleveland, Buffalo etc.

Doormats.
And now look at the teams who invested high picks...

Indy, GB, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Tampa, Baltimore, SD, Philly, Chicago (via trade), St. Louis...

And c'mon. Cap space is the least of their worries when a first round QB doesn't pan out...


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:32 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
And now look at the teams who invested high picks...

Indy, GB, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Tampa, Baltimore, SD, Philly, Chicago (via trade), St. Louis...


How exactly is that a counter to my argument? My point was that if you do miss on a first round QB, you may be a bottomfeeder for a good while after.

Quote:
And c'mon. Cap space is the least of their worries when a first round QB doesn't pan out...


And here commences the decline in quality of another thread.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:36 pm 
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Rich wrote:
Phins Rock wrote:
And now look at the teams who invested high picks...

Indy, GB, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Tampa, Baltimore, SD, Philly, Chicago (via trade), St. Louis...


How exactly is that a counter to my argument? My point was that if you do miss on a first round QB, you may be a bottomfeeder for a good while after.

Quote:
And c'mon. Cap space is the least of their worries when a first round QB doesn't pan out...


And here commences the decline in quality of another thread.


You listed teams that have failed while drafting QB's high, and I doubled your number with teams that also drafted QB's high, but are on top or heading to the top. Just countering that.

And Rich. You're going to sit there and tell me that cap room is the reason that it's too risky to draft a QB high?

But regardless. You don't draft one in the first round, you have close to no chance of succeeding. You draft one, you've got a 50/50 shot (and recent drafts are MUCH better than those odds). That's the main point here.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:38 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
You listed teams that have failed while drafting QB's high, and I doubled your number with teams that also drafted QB's high, but are on top or heading to the top. Just countering that.


I didn't make an effort to list them ALL. I can easily find a lot more if you'd like.

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And Rich. You're going to sit there and tell me that cap room is the reason that it's too risky to draft a QB high?


Yes, if you're going to sit there and twist my words like you always tend to do.

Quote:
But regardless. You don't draft one in the first round, you have close to no chance of succeeding. You draft one, you've got a 50/50 shot (and recent drafts are MUCH better than those odds). That's the main point here.


And my point is that you have a 50/50 chance of stunting your franchise severely if you miss on that first round QB.

I'm not sure why that is difficult to grasp.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:43 pm 
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Again, the math for this thread is fuzzy and convenient for WK's argument.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:44 pm 
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How are you stunting it more by drafting a 1st round bust than not getting a QB at all??

Who cares about cap room...Cap is not an issue. You're not going to sit there when you realize that JaMarcus Russel hasn't panned out and say, "well we have no cap room to do anything else. Shouldn't have even tried getting a legit QB".

There are very few teams who are in tight cap space, and they're there because of ridiculous spending on high priced FA's (Jets). Cap space is not an issue. They money involved might be an issue for an owner who doesn't carry a lose wallet, but not cap space.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:49 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
How are you stunting it more by drafting a 1st round bust than not getting a QB at all??


I'm not sure that was ever a comparison, but the best talent is at the top, right? If the quarterback is not the best (Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, etc.) then it would be wise to draft someone that can help that quarterback. Such as, a LT, or a dominant defensive player....because the things that help a quarterback the most are a good defense, a good running game, good protection, and a good TE.

So draft Kellen Winslow, and Derek Anderson will look good.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:54 pm 
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Iowafin wrote:
Phins Rock wrote:
How are you stunting it more by drafting a 1st round bust than not getting a QB at all??


I'm not sure that was ever a comparison, but the best talent is at the top, right? If the quarterback is not the best (Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, etc.) then it would be wise to draft someone that can help that quarterback. Such as, a LT, or a dominant defensive player....because the things that help a quarterback the most are a good defense, a good running game, good protection, and a good TE.

So draft Kellen Winslow, and Derek Anderson will look good.


Right, but Rich said that if you draft a QB in the late rounds and he doesn't pan out, then you have a better chance of sticking around as a staff/FO than if you draft a bust in the first round. And his reasoning for that was cap space. I'm just arguing that cap space is not the issue, and that drafting a 1st round LT or CB or whatever other position, and waiting until the late rounds to get a nobody is not going to give you a better chance to sticking around than drafting a bust in the first round.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 2:17 am 
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Rich wrote:
wkloiber13 wrote:
So to summarize, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is a coin toss(50%), drafting a quarterback from rounds 3-7 is a roll of the dice(16%). Personally I'd rather toss a coin.
:grin:



There is one aspect you're not looking at.

You can take QBs in the later rounds and fail and your franchise can recover.

You can take a QB in the first round and if you get the wrong side of the coin, it may stunt your franchise for years.


I agree 100% Rich, if you miss on a quarterback in the 1st round it certainly bites a whole lot more than if you missed on one in a later round. But let me just point out that the last time our franchise took the 50/50 shot we wound up with a Hall of Famer. Now I'm not saying there is a Hall of Famer in this draft that will stack up to the likes of Dan Marino, but we'll never know unless we take that chance. If Jeff Ireland is too afraid to draft a quarterback in the 1st round for fear that he'll make a mistake then I think he shouldn't be working for this organization. If Ireland isn't confident enough in his scouting and talent evaluating abilities then we need to start looking for someone who is. This organization has wallowed in mediocrity from the day Marino retired, it's time we changed that and started seriously looking for a replacement. It all starts with the draft and the numbers don't lie, you have a better statistical chance of success if you take your quarterback in round one.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 2:23 am 
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Rich wrote:
Why is Tim Tebow a bust after one season? Not that I like him but talk about making an inconsistent argument.


I agree with you that Time Tebow is not a bust, however, from everything I'm hearing from the news here in Denver the new head coach Fox is naming Orton the starter this year. Tebow is the backup and the new football czar John Elway isn't ruling out drafting a quarterback this year. Reports are that Elway doesn't think Tebow is much of a quarterback. Besides, if I take Tebow out of the equation if only further proves my point that first round picks have a higher chance of success. Right now according to my numbers first rounders have a 50% chance of success, if I remove Tebow from my list the odds of a 1st round pick turning out becomes over 50%.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 2:36 am 
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Iowafin wrote:
Michael Vick won how many playoff games with the Falcons? Then left them in shambles.......I wouldn't be so quick to call him a "solid starter/franchise QB" after one good season with Philly.

Chad Pennington? Solid starter? For what, 2 season?
Jay Cutler? Solid starter? For what, 2 seasons?

Ok.


Your right, any one of those players you mentioned could be on the hot seat and replaced. However, what I'm referencing is the fact that those players respective teams think that they have found themselves their franchise quarterback. The Jets have been to the AFC Championship twice under Sanchez, and Rex Ryan loves him. He's going nowhere. I hate the guy, I think he sucks, but he's going nowhere. Jay Cutler just took the Bears to the NFC Championship. While the guy played like a sissy in that game he's still regarded by most Bears fans as their franchise quarterback now. He'll likely be starting in Chicago for a while. Chad Pennington, he took the Jets to the AFC Championship and he took our Dolphins from 1-15 to 11-5 and an AFC East Championship. He will retire the most accurate quarterback in NFL history. Michael Vick took the Falcons to the NFC Championship and several playoff appearances. The Eagles are due to sign him to a major contract once the CBA gets worked out. He too is likely going nowhere as the Eagle fans love him right now. All of those players are considered solid starters because they are at this current time solid starters.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:29 am 
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Phins Rock wrote:
How are you stunting it more by drafting a 1st round bust than not getting a QB at all??


Where did I say anything about not getting a QB at all?

These discussions with you are really a waste of time. I'm done.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:30 am 
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wkloiber13 wrote:
But let me just point out that the last time our franchise took the 50/50 shot we wound up with a Hall of Famer.


If we go by this 50/50 argument, that means we have a very good chance of ending up at the other side of the 50% spectrum this time around. :fart:

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:55 pm 
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Drafting a qb in the first is either a boom or bust. Your either going to really help or hurt your franchise. With big risk comes big rewards or big consequences. That being said, I think overall, the first round has the best odds of netting you a solid or better qb. I don't know that I agree with the author here that the odds are 50/50. I'm going to take a stab and say they are more likely 60/40 over the past 15-20 years. I don't consider the past 5 years alone to be a great barometer because trends come and go; give me a longer period of time for trends to pan out.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:58 pm 
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Having a reasonable rookie payscale would go a long ways towards teams being able to take more of a chance in the first round. Salary issues wouldn't be so penalizing when a player didn't work out. Right now if you draft a qb in the top ten and he doesn't work out, your pretty well screwed.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 9:25 pm 
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Phin wrote:
Having a reasonable rookie payscale would go a long ways towards teams being able to take more of a chance in the first round. Salary issues wouldn't be so penalizing when a player didn't work out. Right now if you draft a qb in the top ten and he doesn't work out, your pretty well screwed.


Is cost really a big issue though? The fact that your team doesn't have a QB hurts a lot more than the cap space wasted on a bust. That said, considering almost every good young QB in recent years has come out of the first round, it's well worth the risk.

If he doesn't pan out, then he doesn't pan out. But at least you gave it a shot. Your franchise isn't in any worse shape than it would have been if you "settled" for a mid round pick or didn't take one at all.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 9:59 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Phin wrote:
Having a reasonable rookie payscale would go a long ways towards teams being able to take more of a chance in the first round. Salary issues wouldn't be so penalizing when a player didn't work out. Right now if you draft a qb in the top ten and he doesn't work out, your pretty well screwed.


Is cost really a big issue though? The fact that your team doesn't have a QB hurts a lot more than the cap space wasted on a bust. That said, considering almost every good young QB in recent years has come out of the first round, it's well worth the risk.

If he doesn't pan out, then he doesn't pan out. But at least you gave it a shot. Your franchise isn't in any worse shape than it would have been if you "settled" for a mid round pick or didn't take one at all.

The money is a big deal as your cap is tied up in a player (if he is a bust) that is no longer filling a need (as is the case with Rusell who isn't even a Raider anymore). Now you have less money to sign another player to fill his shoes or for other positions on the team where you need to improve.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 10:05 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
That said, considering almost every good young QB in recent years has come out of the first round


Which of course is not true and has been proven unless we define careers after the results of the first three years.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 8:27 am 
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Phin wrote:
The money is a big deal as your cap is tied up in a player (if he is a bust) that is no longer filling a need (as is the case with Rusell who isn't even a Raider anymore). Now you have less money to sign another player to fill his shoes or for other positions on the team where you need to improve.


Phin I commend you for the effort. You get it.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:07 am 
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Phin wrote:
Phins Rock wrote:
Phin wrote:
Having a reasonable rookie payscale would go a long ways towards teams being able to take more of a chance in the first round. Salary issues wouldn't be so penalizing when a player didn't work out. Right now if you draft a qb in the top ten and he doesn't work out, your pretty well screwed.


Is cost really a big issue though? The fact that your team doesn't have a QB hurts a lot more than the cap space wasted on a bust. That said, considering almost every good young QB in recent years has come out of the first round, it's well worth the risk.

If he doesn't pan out, then he doesn't pan out. But at least you gave it a shot. Your franchise isn't in any worse shape than it would have been if you "settled" for a mid round pick or didn't take one at all.

The money is a big deal as your cap is tied up in a player (if he is a bust) that is no longer filling a need (as is the case with Rusell who isn't even a Raider anymore). Now you have less money to sign another player to fill his shoes or for other positions on the team where you need to improve.


Tom Brady is making 20 million a season, and the Pats are also paying other guys around him good money, and they're in the same cap position we are; middle of the pack. 30 million under the "cap".

Unless you've spent stupid money on a stupid amount of players around him, 1 guy is not going to tie you up completely cap wise. It's certainly not a good thing that you're spending 12-14 million on a bad player, or somebody on the bench, but it doesn't ruin your cap or your chances of getting other FA's. Jake Long with the incentives that have kicked in, is making as much as Russell was, and Miami was able to pay Dansby and Marshall last off season, and have good cap room to give Cam Wake a new deal, Paul Soliai, Kendall Langford, etc., as well as already having given deals to Bess, Fasano, Bell, etc...

Not that any of this matters. There will likely be a rookie cap put in place and it will significantly reduce the amount these guys make. Also, this is for top 3 picks. Miami is drafting 15th. At that spot, you're only talking about 10-12 million guaranteed.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:26 am 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Tom Brady is making 20 million a season


Brady is going to cost the Pats less than $13 million this year against the cap.

Please learn about how salaries work in the NFL before posting about them.

Actually, please learn about how anything works before posting about it.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:16 am 
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The Patriots pay Tom Brady, thats about it. Its a reason why they continually stockpile draft picks and restock with young, cheap talent. Its also why all of their upcoming FAs leave town or are traded before contract time. If he busted, could easily replace him.

1st round bust QBs are usually followed up by discount vets, not a situation you want to be in.

If Henne busts completely, Miami isn't stuck paying him Alex Smith money or forced to keep him on the roster because the contract is untradeable.

Even better example is Matt Stafford in Detroit. They are truly stuck if he can't stay healthy and have to bank their immediate future on Drew Stanton or Shaun Hill. If they move on from Stafford they can't afford to solidify other positions should they opt for another 1st Round, high cost QB.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 6:36 pm 
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Phins Rock wrote:
Tom Brady is making 20 million a season, and the Pats are also paying other guys around him good money, and they're in the same cap position we are; middle of the pack. 30 million under the "cap".

Unless you've spent stupid money on a stupid amount of players around him, 1 guy is not going to tie you up completely cap wise. It's certainly not a good thing that you're spending 12-14 million on a bad player, or somebody on the bench, but it doesn't ruin your cap or your chances of getting other FA's. Jake Long with the incentives that have kicked in, is making as much as Russell was, and Miami was able to pay Dansby and Marshall last off season, and have good cap room to give Cam Wake a new deal, Paul Soliai, Kendall Langford, etc., as well as already having given deals to Bess, Fasano, Bell, etc...

Not that any of this matters. There will likely be a rookie cap put in place and it will significantly reduce the amount these guys make. Also, this is for top 3 picks. Miami is drafting 15th. At that spot, you're only talking about 10-12 million guaranteed.

Is Tom Brady a bust that is using up the Patriots cap while not contributing to the team?
I don't think your getting this........
Any team in the NFL would gladly pay 'first overall draft pick money' for a player who is going to be as valuable to his team as Brady is. The point is that you don't want to be tying up cap space with a player who is riding pine (Jemarcus Russell, Harrington, Leaf, Carr, ect.) or no longer active on your roster. It sets you back financially and you don't have a player to show for that pick either. I think everyone here gets the point, Im not sure why your not............
Frankly the same concept applies to any position you draft where you have a high draft pick using up lots of cap space and not contributing to the team. Busted first round picks hurt teams big.


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