Last season, the Miami Dolphins started a rookie quarterback to open the season for the first time in franchise history. Ryan Tannehill, drafted 8th overall out of Texas A&M, had started only 19 games in college, and was about to start for a professional football team. The scouting report on Tannehill coming out of college was that he had terrific physical tools, could make all the throws, had above average mobility, but was inexperienced and raw. He would need time to develop before being able to start a game. But the Dolphins went against conventional wisdom and let him learn on the field, in a trial by fire.

His statistics for 2012 paint a picture of the typical rookie QB, mediocre numbers that could certainly use some improving. Tannehill finished the 2012 season completing 58.3% of his passes for 3294 yards, 12 TDs and 13 INTs. His QB rating was 76.1, putting him at 31st out of 38 QBs that had significant playing time in 2012. Tannehill was right behind fellow rookie Andrew Luck in QB rating and two spots head of another rookie, Brandon Weeden.

The consensus is that Tannehill had limited weapons to throw to and didn't get the best pass protection. Outside of Brian Hartline and Davone Bess, who had 1 touchdown a piece, Tannehill didn't have too many targets. The third wide receiver was a carousel that included cast-offs such as Ledegu Nanee, Jabbar Gaffney and Anthony Armstrong. Marlon Moore was more of a special teams player and Rishard Matthews was a rookie taken in the 7th round.

At tight end, the Dolphins had Anthony Fasano, a good blocker with good hands, but lacking the sufficient speed, quickness and athleticism to beat good linebackers one on one. Behind Fasano, the Dolphins had Charles Clay, a 2nd year player who had an up and down (mostly down) season.

Out of the backfield, the Dolphins had Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. Bush was underutilized as a pass catcher, but throwing to running backs is not how quarterbacks win games in the NFL.

The Dolphins also had an offensive line that wasn't very athletic, so they were ineffective at running screens, which would have certainly helped the running backs be more effective pass catching threats out of the backfield.

All in all, Ryan Tannehill was saddled with an offense that wasn't very dynamic or versatile. On top of that, he had his own flaws, tied to his inexperience. Tannehill would at times stare down receivers, read plays late, take too many chances downfield when hitting an open receiver short for a first down would have been enough, and even struggled with accuracy on deep throws at times.

The point is, there was plenty of room for improvement, both in the talent surrounding Tannehill and in the quality of Tannehill's play as well.

However, despite a low quarterback rating, a completion percentage below 60%, and a low number of touchdowns. There are things Tannehill did very well. Below you will see a statistical breakdown, provided by Pro Football Focus, that will paint a clear picture of what Tannehill did well and what he didn't do so well. You'll also have an idea of where improvement is needed in surrounding talent from looking at some of these metrics.

Rating By Week:

First, let's look at Tannehill's rating by week according to PFF. What you'll note is a player who had his ups and downs (shocking for a rookie). He had some very good stretches with some tough weeks in between. But for the most part, he was in the positive range on a week to week basis.



Passes By Direction:

I think this is one of the most telling diagrams regarding Tannehill's performance. In looking at this chart, you see where Tannehill's strengths and weaknesses are from a throwing perspective, but we can also add some flavor regarding where the Dolphins have some offensive weaknesses as well.



For example, when throwing deep down the left sideline, Tannehill went 3 of 18. A big reason for this may be that in many of those scenarios, Tannehill was throwing the ball deep to Davone Bess, who lined up on the left side of the offense most of the season. Bess's strength is as a slot receiver, not a deep threat. Additionally, other players that may have been involved in these deep throws were the cast offs we talked about earlier. Miami's best receiver in 2012, Brian Hartline, lined up almost exclusively on the right side of the offense.

Conversely, Tannehill had a lot of success throwing deep down the right sideline to Brian Hartline primarily. When throwing deep down the right, Tannehill was 13 of 26.

Tannehill also struggled throwing the ball down the middle of the field. 7 of his 13 interceptions came when throwing the ball on short or intermediate routes down the middle.

This indicates three things:

1. Tannehill needs to work on his decision making between the numbers
2. The Dolphins need at upgrade at tight end
3. The middle of the field is clogged with defenders because teams don't have to worry about the Dolphins attacking deep

Passing Under Pressure

Tannehill's numbers when under pressure also show something interesting. In certain cases, they actually improve. For example, his yards per attempt when under pressure are higher than when he is not being pressured. His yards per attempt against the blitz is a remarkable 8.1. Of course, when he is not under pressure, his completion percentage goes up over 60% and his QB rating is at its highest. The moral of the story is that the Dolphins have to do a better job of protecting Tannehill, but he is mobile and composed enough to make plays even if he is under pressure.



Miscellaneous

One other factor that dampened Tannehill's numbers is drops. Tannehill had 36 of his passes dropped, 11th most in the NFL.

Conversely, one area in which Tannehill excelled was at running. Tannehill ran the ball more as the season went on, and it made him a more dynamic and dangerous player. Granted, you do not want your QB running the ball too often, or being tackled for that matter. But if he can create that extra threat or extend the play with his legs, it will help his receivers out quite a bit as the defense will have one more thing to consider.

Great write up! Damn man... just line up Mike Wallace on the right side every time and let it fly!

Thanks!

The Dolphins will probably line up Wallace on the left, where he spent most of his time in Pittsburgh and where Tannehill needs the most help.

Hartline will continue lining up on the right, where he was very effective with intermediate and even deep passes.

I really wish they'd stop lumping the "deep" ball with 20 yards. I want to see stats of how guys connect on those 30-40+ yarders deep down the field. When a guy is 6'5 230 with an arm like Tannehills, throwing 20 yards down field should not be an issue.

Great writeup on what he does/doesn't do well. Sounds alot like what the writeups were with him coming out of college. Hope to see an improvement managing the middle of the field. They should use his athleticism more to open up that area of the field. Otherwise teams are going to continue pinning his throws to the sidelines.

People equate arm strength to the ability to throw the ball 40+ yards over the top of the defense. But that isn't the best indicator of arm strength. In fact, most of those throws are touch passes or "rainbow throws". The best indicator of arm strength is how fast a pass can get to the outside receiver on a deep out, deep comeback or deep dig. Those passes require velocity because otherwise defensive backs have ample time to make a play on the ball and a lot of times interceptions on those routes are returned for good yardage. But they are necessary routes to open up the middle of the field.

By the way, all of these routes have the word "deep" in them, and they are all 15-25 yard routes.

How you attack the outside 3rd quadrants of the field, i.e. the 20-30 yard areas outside the hashmarks is more important to a passing game than any other throw in football, because as I said, that is what really opens up the middle of the field.

Moving Tannehill around and taking advantage of his athletic ability is a solid idea, and one that was under-utilized last year in my opinion. I think the addition of Dustin Keller will also open up the middle of the field. Having a seam buster like that will be huge for the passing game. Nothing against Fasano, he was a well-rounded player, but Keller brings an element to our passing game that we haven't seen in quite some time.

I always considered "deep" passes as everything between 20 and 30 yards. Anything over 30 yards I always called a "bomb".

I agree with Rock that when you think of a "deep" pass you typically think of "bombs" or throws 30+ yards down the field.

But I also agree with Thrawn that the most difficult throws are the ones outside the hashmarks and 15-25 yards down the field. Those throws require more armstrength, better timing, and are the most dangerous throws for being intercepted (just ask Chad Henne).

Whether we're talking arm strength or velocity, again I'm saying the 20 yard pass is far more prominent in today's NFL game. It's not really the staple of a "deep" pass in my opinion. His performance in that quadrant of the field isn't broken down by yard (i.e. 20 yards, 22 yards, 25 yard, etc). It's just a lumped sum distribution.

His splits show that he struggles beyond 20 yards from a completions standpoint .....Hopefully with new weapons, it improves.


http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/rya ... -tannehill

Tannehill also seemed to progress in last 6 games of the season. He threw 6 TD's to 2 INT and went 3 -3 while playing Seattle, 49'ers and NE twice. His QB rating was 86.68 during this span.

..... Which was a nice silver lining.

Can you take a guess at whose splits these are?




6-19 for 256 yards vs 6-21 for 286 yards.

Nice analysis Thrawn!

I think this year we'll getter a better idea of what we have in Tannehill.
I'm thinking Wallace opens everything up.

There's your opinion, and then there is what people who actually coach football, play football, design plays for football and analyze football know to be a "deep" pass, whether it is at a professional level or below.

I get what you're saying about passes over 20 yards versus passes over 40 yards, but you're not going to change the definition of the word deep. It is what it is.

Just like a safety lined up 15 yards from the line of scrimmage is considered to be lined up deep. You don't see safeties lining up 40 yards from the line of scrimmage before one can say they are lined up deep.

Aaron Rodgers?

By the way, you can look at almost any top QB's splits and see that their numbers drop off considerably the longer the ball travels in the air.

Tom Brady only completed 29.4% of his passes over 20 yards in 2012.

Aaron Rodgers only completed 35.8% of his passes over 20 yards in 2012.

Drew Brees 42.2%

Peyton Manning 42.4%. No attempts over 40 yards.

Matt Ryan 32.7%

Ryan Tannehill 37%.

So Tannehill is in the ballpark of all these elite quarterbacks in completion percentage on passes 20+ yards despite having only one receiver who at times can get behind one on one coverage. Those guys all have much better weapons than Tannehill.

Let's just keep things in perspective here.

Those splits were Brady's.

Brady actually missed quite a few open WR's deep last season. Then again, he, like Tannehill, didn't have any deep threats to throw to.

I think the talk about Tannehill's deep ball being weak (Omar *cough*), is severely overrated. His deep ball is fine. No QB is ever going to be accurate enough throwing deep to satisfy the fans....Even Andrew Luck, whose deep ball is ridiculous, completed a lower percentage than Tannehill.




Is this going to be a thing now? We're calling you Thrawn?

I believe Dolphins fans should be as optimistic and hopeful (maybe more) regarding their future as Colts fans are.



To me this statement is very true, and makes me not as interested in most stats.





1. Better options to choose from should lead to better decisions.
2. Done (Dustin Keller)
3. Done (Mike Wallace)




I think this has a big part in making or breaking a QB transitioning from NCAA to NFL. Glad Tannehill has it.



This stat has to improve dramatically.




Excellently stated and well thought out post.
I think Dolphins fans have a lot to be happy about on both sides of the ball. I love what they have done in free agency already, and the draft should be exciting with all the picks they have.

Go Dolphins!

It seems Thrawn was far more beloved than Rich around here. I have no idea why.

Don't know what you got till it's gone.

thats why Brady throws nothing but 1 to 5 yard passes, and just let's the midgets get all the YAC for him.

They paved paradise / And put up a parking lot

Nice write up Rich. What you pointed out reinforces the wisdom of signing Wallace imo.

When both careers are done , Tannehill's will rival Brady's.

For some reason when I read the name "Thrawn" I picture the lead singer of Cannibal Corpse just bellowing it in that demonic voice of his.

And if anyone doesn't know Cannibal Corpse then simply rent the first Ace Ventura movie.

Let's hope he comes out ready to go this season. If we're able to snag a couple more veteran free agents and draft well, then I think this team will only go so far as Tannehill is able to take it. With all of these new weapons it's obvious the Dolphins were very calculated in their approach to free agency. Now it's up to Ryan to execute.

It really does. Everthing I have read, makes it seem like Wallace is just a pimariy deep threat we overpayed for, but he is exactly what we need. Just lining up on the field, makes every play a potential for an long touchdown, and that makes defenses back up. Opening up all kinds of room underneath.

According to Football Outsiders, 73% of Wallace's receptions last year were mid or short routes and only 27% were deep or "bomb" routes. So he's not just a one trick pony, he's just so fast that we all think he is.

Tannehill should have no excuses this year. I don't expect him to be elite, but he needs to put up 20+ TD passes (unless the RBs put the ball in the end zone 3 times per game), limit the picks to less than 16 (1 per game avg) and make sure he leads Miami to a winning record.

The only things I don't like at the moment are the o-line questions and the fact that his only tall, red zone targets on the roster are Jeff Fuller and Michael Egnew. Maybe Keller's athletic ability is the answer to that but I don't remember him being a jump ball guy. I expect Miami to correct those issues in the draft.

If Miami can improve the O-line they won't stall out so often in the red zone. Adding Wallace and Keller will create a lot of big plays and spread defenses out. The offense will have more quick strike TD's. Something we haven't seen since Marino in his prime. Adding Wallace and Keller is going to create mismatches that Tannehill can exploit if he has time to throw.

Thrawn "aka" Rich, very nice write up dude. I like to read postings like this with breakdown analysis data.

Those numbers were drastically different than in years past because of Todd Haley's system. There was a big stink made about it by various players on the Steelers. Hence one of the major reasons why his total output (not %'s) were down this year.

True, but it exhibits the fact that he has the ability to run more than a deep fly route, as is the perception with some people

They paved paradise / And put up a parking lot

Nice write up Rich. What you pointed out reinforces the wisdom of signing Wallace imo.[/quote]

It really does. Everthing I have read, makes it seem like Wallace is just a pimariy deep threat we overpayed for, but he is exactly what we need. Just lining up on the field, makes every play a potential for an long touchdown, and that makes defenses back up. Opening up all kinds of room underneath.[/quote]

According to Football Outsiders, 73% of Wallace's receptions last year were mid or short routes and only 27% were deep or "bomb" routes. So he's not just a one trick pony, he's just so fast that we all think he is.[/quote]

Not claiming to know exactly what he brings to the table, just that if the rest of the NFL sees him as a deep threat that requires double coverage, he should open up the box for us. No more 8 men stacked coverage against the run or, stacking the ten yards from the LOS agaisnt the pass Heck, I would start each first quarter, by throwing to Wallace deep on a post, just to reinforce that. Many might critize his signing and what we are paying him, but I think he he is worth it to this offense. I actually expect that Hartline will have a bigger year, than last year because of him.

I actually disagree. Between our questions at the left tackle and the fact that (at least to me) our running backs aren't anything to be scared of, I don't see any reason why you wouldn't line up eight in the box and blitz to make Tannehill beat them.

That is exactly how defenses are going to attack Miami this year. This game is all about adjustments and creating mismatches. My hope is that Miami will address the left tackle position through free agency and the draft. The big difference between last years offense and this years offense is there are more pass catching play makers in the lineup now. Last year opponents could double Hartline and then only have to worry about Bess, Fasano, or Bush out of the backfield. With the addition of Wallace, Gibson and Keller this year Defenses will have to worry about mismatches. Wallace and Keller ability to create separation is going to create a lot of problems for defenses that will allow a lot of opportunities for Hartline, Gibson and Bess. Adding Wallace alone is going to force the 8th man out of the box and open things up big time for the running game. Improving the offensive line is a must but this years offense is going to be exciting to watch. Lamar Miller is going to have a great year rushing the ball because Walllace and Keller are going to make defenses back up and defend the pass down field.

There's a difference between "ability" and efficiency when doing something. Again, his numbers were down because his talents really didn't fit what Haley wants to do schematically. Can he catch in the short area of the field? Sure ..... Is that necessarily how to best use him? I'm not to sure of that. Wallace's bread and butter will always be utilizing his speed to blow the top off defenses. That's just who he is as a player.

I'd love to see us draft this way:
1st - Xavier Rhodes CB FSU
2nd - Johnthan Banks CB/FS Miss St.
2nd - Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
3rd - David Amerson CB/FS NC St.
3rd - Barrett Jones OL Alabama
4th-7th* - DE, DT, OG, TE, RB, OT (No Particular Order - Best Player Available)
*Someone told me we got a 5th and 7th for compensatory picks.

If we were able to snag a few big DBs and add a big WR like Hunter, I think this team would fill in most all of the gaps left behind after free agency. I'm of course assuming that we'll look to add a RT and possibly another DE in free agency.

Yes, that is his bread and butter. He's a speed guy at heart, but he's still developing. He's adding routes to his repertoire to become a better, more complete wide receiver. He's never going to be the guy that you look to in all situations, but he's becoming more than just a speed guy

With 11 picks in the draft, and the possibility of trades or more FA signings, I bet the OL will look a lot different by week one.

Plus this is reassuring: