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 Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II 
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Post Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
by Marc Degnan

The previous article looked at the trades Ireland made involving the 2013 draft. The conclusions was that he had a +550.2 net gain in points based upon the traditional draft value chart. Before I move into the recent work that people have done I decided it would be good to get a greater picture of how good +550 points is.

I used espn draft trade tracker to catalog all 26 trades executed during the 2013 draft. I summed all the positives and negative points of every trade.

For trades involving future picks, I made the assumption that a pick one year out is worth one round less than a pick this year. For example, if you receive a 2014 5th round pick, I used the value of the middle pick of the 6th round to assign the future pick a value. There was one trade involving a 2015 7th round pick. I assigned zero points to that pick. I honestly can't believe people haggled over the value of a trade using a 7th round pick, 2 years out.

Since I cannot assign a reliable value to players traded, I took them out of the equation and summed the points. Then I report who the team traded for and/or traded away.

Here are the results for 2013: *

Image

(* Note - the main blog has this information arranged in a larger table).

There were 28 teams that made some kind of trade on draft day. 15 of them wound up plus or minus 8 points. The first pick of the 7th round is worth 8.6 points. So they did not really gain or lose much value in the trades, just jockeyed position. Ireland notched +550.2 points but traded away Devon Bess. He absolutely blew away the field. The next closest was San Francisco with +142.8 points.

Obviously the trade with Oakland was a huge trade that makes up most of the points (520 out of 550.2). However, even if you take away the Oakland trade, Ireland still accumulated 30.2 points, minus whatever you would assign to Devon Bess. For comparison, 30.2 points would still put Ireland at #4 on the list.

I even went back and assessed every trade for the previous 4 years (2010-2013 drafts). Ireland's score of +550.2 is by far the best trade over that period. Even better than St. Louis' trade down which gave Washington RGIII (only +135 points).

Using the traditional draft value chart, it is very clear: Ireland did an overall superb job of trades on draft day this year. Even though most of the points came from one trade, it was a huge gain in value for the Dolphins. I will offer a caveat: There are issues with the draft value chart, which is what the updated version I will present next seeks to improve upon. The new version will offer a different evaluation of everyone's bartering skills.

http://www.phinfever.com/newsite/index. ... 1&Itemid=1

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Mon May 06, 2013 7:28 am
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
And all they could talk about was the great Patriot trade in the draft. What a joke.

We took the Raders to the cleaners.


Mon May 06, 2013 6:30 pm
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
The pressure was on Jeff Ireland to have a very good off season and he Passed with flying colors. From free agency to the draft, this has been a stellar off season for Ireland.

Now it up to the staff to mesh this young team together and put the results on the field in the form of a winning season, a playoff season.

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Mon May 06, 2013 6:34 pm
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Who wrote this, Dave?


Mon May 06, 2013 6:44 pm
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Phins Rock wrote:
Who wrote this, Dave?


Me. He put my "real" name on the title. But most people probably don't know me by that name.


Mon May 06, 2013 7:01 pm
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
I kinda figured that 'degs' and Degnan was a safe connection to make

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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
cspooner13 wrote:
I kinda figured that 'degs' and Degnan was a safe connection to make


I see it now......nice job with that piece Mark.

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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
phinsfansc wrote:
cspooner13 wrote:
I kinda figured that 'degs' and Degnan was a safe connection to make


I see it now......nice job with that piece Mark.


Thanks. There will be more over the next few weeks.
And here is the link to the first part....

http://www.phinfever.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9021


Tue May 07, 2013 1:35 am
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
phinsfansc wrote:
The pressure was on Jeff Ireland to have a very good off season and he Passed with flying colors. From free agency to the draft, this has been a stellar off season for Ireland.


I think he did a great job. He's added some playmakers and some bandaids to help us win this year with the hope that his draft picks step up next year to fill the holes. My only disapproval was to trade Bess when we could have absorbed his salary this year as we have the cap space. Then we didn't draft a receiver.

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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
I agree Dave,I don't think you will find a fan that likes the Bess move.

My only conclusion is that something was going on there....He was not focused on the team or being a bad apple....


Tue May 07, 2013 6:59 am
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Kev1321 wrote:
I agree Dave,I don't think you will find a fan that likes the Bess move.

My only conclusion is that something was going on there....He was not focused on the team or being a bad apple....


I can't see him being a bad apple. I think they just want their receivers to have the speed to be able to play inside or out. It's a scheme fit thing, imo. If we don't see one of the young kids stepping up in camp, I expect this position to be addressed when camp cuts begin. This year, there are only a few positions where I could foresee much of that kind of thing. Safety is another (again depending on how the young kids look) and I would not be surprised if they add a veteran running back on the cheap if they feel it would be an upgrade on Thomas.


Tue May 07, 2013 7:57 am
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Kev1321 wrote:
I don't think you will find a fan that likes the Bess move.


I like the Bess move.

He was probably going to wind up being your #4 receiver in this system, he was on the last year of his deal, so you either trade him for something this year or lose him for nothing next.

The move opened up additional cap room and allowed the Dolphins to acquire additional talent.

Frankly, I'm surprised they got what they got for Bess.

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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Kev1321 wrote:
I agree Dave,I don't think you will find a fan that likes the Bess move.

My only conclusion is that something was going on there....He was not focused on the team or being a bad apple....


I know some people will dismiss it but he was part of that "leadership council" from last year that included him, Long, Bush and I believe Dansby. The only one Miami was willing to keep was Long and I think part of that was due to the difficulty of finding a decent LT.

Add that, plus his contract, plus the fact that he rarely found the end zone and it lead to his exit.


Tue May 07, 2013 8:07 am
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Interesting, let's hope these numbers translate into good play on the field. All to often I see the Dolphins making moves and signing players only to wind up with a similar record. What I want to see is not just us winning in the off season, but winning in the regular and post season.


Tue May 07, 2013 4:47 pm
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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
wkloiber13 wrote:
Interesting, let's hope these numbers translate into good play on the field. All to often I see the Dolphins making moves and signing players only to wind up with a similar record. What I want to see is not just us winning in the off season, but winning in the regular and post season.


Regardless of good players, you have to have good coaching to have a winning record. I firmly believe we see the first good coach the Dolphins have had this century and that it will translate into a winning record. Is it 2013? No one can answer that yet. But I do believe there is a lot going on that indicates a move in the right direction.


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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Rich wrote:
He was probably going to wind up being your #4 receiver in this system


Definitely would be #4. Even though he couldn't find the end zone, he did have a knack for moving the sticks. We had very good depth with him and in Ireland/Phlben's eyes it was a luxury when we needed more.

Rich wrote:
The move opened up additional cap room and allowed the Dolphins to acquire additional talent.


The biggest plus in the trade.

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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
Big Dave wrote:
in Ireland/Phlben's eyes it was a luxury


I think that's a huge point. On a highly successful team you can afford to have a luxury/special player: e.g. one who moves the chains but can't find the end zone. The Dolphins are not there yet.


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Post Re: Marc Degnan - Assessing Ireland's Trades Part II
phinsfansc wrote:
The pressure was on Jeff Ireland to have a very good off season and he Passed with flying colors. From free agency to the draft, this has been a stellar off season for Ireland.

Now it up to the staff to mesh this young team together and put the results on the field in the form of a winning season, a playoff season.


I keep hearing this comment, that Ireland had some pressure on him, but really I think Ross made that abundantly clear that Irish's job was NOT on the line. Bottom line is, while I think Ireland did a good job this offseason, he and Philbin have another year (2014) before either is on the hot seat...


Thu May 09, 2013 2:00 pm
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