This is why I preach the deep ball. Here is some of Elliot Harrison's (NFL.com) research on the subject!

-All of this extracted from: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8 ... _spotlight











And my favorite:



And there's the numbers to prove that. Go ahead and make your case about Henne being young etc. Others have come in and done it. We had a loosing season last year, and Henne (who passed for most of it) was averaging 6.4. Pennington lost all 3 games he started with a wonderful 5.6 yards per attempt.

Have to throw the ball down the field. It's not really an option if you want to be a winner.

Just a few more tid bits...

2005 Steelers led league in YPA and won the SB
2006 Colts led the league in YPA and won the SB
2007 Patriots led the league in YPA and went 16-0, lost the SB
2008 The Anomaly... Steelers 20th Cards 6th... mind you the Steelers had 8.5 in the big one.
2009 Saints were 2nd in YPA and won the SB

I was just thinking yesterday, with the Jets loss, how awesome NFL Statistics are. This type of stuff is super interesting, and it brings up a lot of great points.

Steve Mariucchi said the other day that only 24% of the teams that lose on opening day make it to the playoffs.

I think I would add that there are reasons why we didn't go to the air in week #1 against the leagues #1 pass defense. Yes, that is the Bills ;)

I don't think we'd simply get Brandon Marshall to open up the running game because he's a 'threat'. He's not a threat if we don't use him.

Against the Bills we used very simple hook and crossing routes (other than his drop). Maybe this a plan so we could take advantage of the Vikings secondary. Who knows.

The verdict is still out, I like your stats, but the season has just started and we've made noticeable upgrade and notice in our passing game.

Anyway, that is a very compelling case you have there for the deep ball. Thanks for sharing.

Not sure for the necessity of your post.

For instance: Does ANYONE, ANYWHERE not make the correlation between teams that can pass the ball downfield has a better chance of winning games? Of course teams that can throw deep and score will have success.

Everyone knows these things. Do you really think that Sparano and Co don't want to go down the field for some reason? That they have found some reason to not throw deep? That's it's a conspiracy of some sort, or that those who run the team don't see the 800 lb gorilla in the room?

When they feel confident that we can throw deep while minimizing risk (or more appropriately, when Henne starts to gain more confidence in himself and his receivers), surely you will see the deep ball.

Has anyone ever told you that you whine too much about the deep pass?

Yes, but I don't really care. You may have missed a quote...

"...win more than those who just avoid mistakes"

That applies to rookies as well.

I agree on Ski on this one. Miami's offensive philosophy has been conservative and run oriented since Sparano got here. I do think Sparano and Henning have limited what Henne is allowed to do regarding audibles. I also think they preach "don't take chances" with the football that might cause turnovers. Miami had success in the first half throwing mid to long range passes. Fasano's catch & Marshalls drop of the bomb are two passes that come to mind quickly. Buffalo made corrections at half time to take Marshall out of the game and Hartline and Bess didn't step up and make the plays. They also wasted several downs running the wildcat. Part of this comes from having a QB making his 14th start of his career and part comes from having a very conservative offensive coaching philosophy. And several dropped passes by Hartline and Marshall didn't help the final completion numbers either.

Maybe you guys haven't noticed, but we still do not have a deep threat on the roster. All the teams mentioned have deep threats. Every single last one of them.

Marshall is a great talent, catches a lot of passes, but while he draws attention, he doesn't necessarily stretch the field the way a Santonio Holmes or Miles Austin do.

I could care less about stats but I agree with the original post .... throw the ball down the field!! Not doing so only shows no confidence in your QB.

As well though , Rich brings up a valid point about Marshall.

I saw Marshall deep down the field with two defenders beat on Sunday if I am not mistaken...

Granted our guys aren't speedsters, but seriously we are talking a few tenths of a second slower than others...
Combine times
Marshall ran a 4.5
Bess ran a 4.7
Hartline ran a 4.5

Ginn ran a 4.3, so our current recievers are just a few tenths of a second slower...

I beg to differ on not having a "true deep threat" and our offense has enough tallent on it that we should be able to put the ball down field...
One right move by any of these three in single cover can put them one step ahead of a defender which is all they need...

There is much more to getting open on a deep route than just speed....

Also if you have an offense that poses a threat 20 yards past the line of scrimmage the defense is forced to pay attention to that area which frees up the lanes for the R&R express...

I for one will be happy when Henning retires, I think he has a great football mind, and a playbook that should be archived, but his selection at times s questionable...

To me, this line of thinking draws an effect (those you have high YPA throw deep) without cause.

Just because you average more YPA does not mean you are have a throw-deep-early-and-often philosophy. You could have receivers that get a lot of YAC or you could focus on a high completion percentage.

There is a cause and effect relationship. If defenses don't respect the deep ball, they bring the safeties up. Its hard to run on 8 guys in the box and near impossible with 9. That's what Buffalo did in the 2nd half and Miami didn't even attempt to throw deep. You have to keep the defense honest or you're just going to have tough sledding on offense. BMarsh was wide open on that play. Why not try it a couple more times in the game? If you hit one, you dont' have to sweat the 4th quarter. Baltimore easily loses the game against the Jets if they don't throw deep. It was the only play the Jets gave them and they took it. If Miami plays into the teeth of the Jets Defense without any attempt to exploit those matchups, they'll lose this weekend and many more to come. Go take a look at the coming schedule...its like a tsunami. Minny, Jets, Patriots, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cinncinnati, Baltimore, and Tennessee.

Better YPA is one thing, but you don't have to air it out more often to necessarily improve it dramatically. Your YPA goes up just the same if you design a nice screen pass to Bess that goes for 25 yards (w/YAC) as it would if you hit Hartline for a 25 yd completion where he is tackled immediately.

Again, let Henne progress. This is starting to get annoying because it seems people are more interested in stats and highlight reels than winning. The difference between Pennington and most QBs is that he plays smart. His hang up is that he can't lead comebacks and can't be a deep threat because his arm strength doesn't allow it. Defenses can work easier against that. Henne has learned to play smart, but he has the arm to put together deep throws or strong throws into tight spots when needed. That is huge in my opinion. There is a reason Brett Favre isn't consistently in the Super Bowl and guys like Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger and Warner are. They have the arm, but during most of the game they are focusing on short - intermediate, high percentage throws. When needed or have the opportunity, they strike deep.

Its the first game, many YOUNG Qb's played with the jitters. Ryan, Flacco, Sanchez, Schaub, Rodgers...they all didn't impress. The difference is Henne didn't make wild throws and didn't commit turnovers like they did.

This dates back two years now. Henning either doesn't call the plays, or the QB's are checking down. Whatever the case, Miami doesn't even attempt to go deep more than about once or twice a game. So call it what you want, they don't do it.

Even Oronde Gadsden managed to beat defenders down the field from time to time. That's not enough to make a player a deep threat.



40 speeds are great for seeing how fast a player can run in a straight line. However, most routes in the route tree do not require a player to run as fast as he can in a straight line.



Really? Where is this downfield talent?

Marshall has always been a YAC guy. Most of his plays are made in the short to intermediate area and then he makes something happen after the catch.

Bess is a possession slot guy.

Hartline is unproven.

Fasano is a slow tight end.

So where is the deep threat on this roster?



Yet you focused on 40 times earlier in your post.



Did you catalogue how many deep routes were called against the Bills?

Thank you.

Completion percentage also affects YPA.

If you have a QB going 15 of 30 for 200 yards, he may be completing passes of 13 yards each time, but his YPA will be 6.6.

A QB that completes 15 of 25 for 200 yards will still be completing 13.3 yards per completion, but his YPA will spike to 8.

YPA can be a misleading stat. It doesn't necessarily mean a QB is attacking deeper. As some have said, players may be doing more with the ball after the catch and a higher completion percentage will also raise the YPA.

Brandon Marshall is 6'4", 230lbs and evey ball in the air is his. If he's single covered, he's a deep threat....period.

30 yds or more, 2. and 1 was that was thrown way off target.

Miami had Hartline, wide open downfield on more than 1 occasion against Buffalo. Yes he's unproven but Henne has to start finding the deep guys and looking for them. More often than not, he is checking down as the deeper WR is coming open. Where Miami tried to go deep at least 4 times in a game, they usually won that game. I do not get the philosophy of finding BMarsh Wide open and never going back to that play again. For the players parts, they need to start making those plays. Trent Edwards and Roscoe Parrish got one play yesterday and they made it happen. NFL Players have to make those throws and catches.

If you are trying to say that Henne needs to develop more as a QB, that's one thing.
If you are trying to support it with this guy Elliot Harrison's research, it's a stretch.

As I said, it seems to assume a cause and effect relationship between YPA and throwing the ball deep. It's a relationship that makes too many assumptions and leaves out important variables.

Here is what I think is a better way of looking at it:

Should Henne throw deep more often? Maybe. Maybe not.
Will throwing deep more often result in a higher YPA? Maybe. Maybe not.
Will throwing deep more often result in more victories? Maybe. Maybe not.
Does Henne need to develop as a QB? Yes.

So if Henne develops as a QB, then we are best off. If that means improving his completion percentage, speeding up his reads, making better decisions, or maybe even throwing the ball deep, whatever... that's what will help the team win more games.

Really? You might want to revisit that. His three 100 catch seasons in Denver he did the overwhelming majority of his work with the short to intermediate stuff, not streaking down the field.

And in what imaginary universe are you envisioning a guy like Marshall getting single coverage when he has no compliment on the other side worthy of a double team?

Let's deal in REALITY here, if you can...





Oh yea... lest I forget...



.... PERIOD!

Really? Were you AT the game or are you basing this on what you saw on TV?

Because on TV you rarely get to see what is going on in the deep secondary.

And I highly doubt that ANY NFL offense only has two deep routes being run in an entire game.

Perfectly said.

I know how many were executed or at least attempted on behalf of the offense. What doesn it matter that you're running deep routes if the offense never executes a deep pass? Even the Bills Defense was keying on the checkdown in the 2nd half because they had no respect for a deep ball being thrown.

That wasn't my question. People are blaming Henning because the passing game doesn't attack downfield as if all he is calling is plays with hitches and drags. But he isn't the one deciding where to go with the ball, Henne is.



That may be because Buffalo has one of the best young secondaries in the game.

Is that not a factor also, or are the Dolphins playing against a non-existant defense?

I live in Bronco territory and got the pleasure of watching Marshall for 2 years. You must've missed Marshall's interview...let me post it for you.
http://www.miamidolphins.com/content/br ... cript-9810

REALITY says that in order to stop Ricky and Ronnie teams are going to have to cheat safeties up. Its going to lead to plays where Marshall can slip behind the secondary. Furthermore do the Jets play anything but single man defense? Furthermore, if teams are so concerned about Marshall that should free up Hartline and untested or not, you have to start throwing to the guy deep. Bottom line, you can make excuses for all the checkdown throws all day, but if Miami doesn't start exploiting the deeper half of the field, this upcoming schedule will bury them. The next 8 games are against playoff teams.
Click here to learn how to add YouTube Videos to your phpBB forum ... please note the 2nd half of the video. Henne would do well to learn that this guy is NEVER covered. Oh yeah...check out the all the burned "double coverage". Please come armed with some facts next time.

Sometimes it seems people will disagree with you just to spark a debate and pass time...

I for one think if the ball would be thrown more than 20 yards down the field 1 or 2 tmes a game we would all be able to see what happens...

As it stands, our WR core with the exception of Marshall is horrible at getting open, our QB is too scared to throw it unless the DB's are 5 yards away or our coord doesnt call the plays..

However you want to analyze it is up to you.. All I know is I watch alot more than just Dolphins games, and I see WR's and TE's catching balls thrown down field at them. They are not wide open, and some times not caught and even at times picked off. But they are also caught for big chunk plays too...

The fact is, if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen, and for whatever reason or whoever is to blame it is not making the Dolphins a better team..
Its making them more one dimensional...
We may as well put Pennington in cause teams will continue to play up close....

Dissect my post however you want. Its the way I feel about it... I am no expert...

Chad Pennington came in for 1 series with Marshall after Henne didn't move the offense all half in the 3rd preseason game. He threw a wobbly duck into double coverage right at BMarsh and completed a 40yd throw. Henne has to learn to trust BMarsh if Miami is going to win games. Put the ball where he can get to it and trust that he will.

I'm not dissecting it. If you want another 8-8, 9-7 season the Dolphins can continue to play safeball. You won't win against the elite teams in the NFL by not exploiting what they give you. Many teams purposely come in with the idea to shutdown Ricky and Ronnie. What does Miami do...they don't disappoint as we run R&R 65% of the time and throw dink n dunk when they don't run. Yards are tough to come by as defense tighten the screws. No guts, no glory.

Junkie we are on the same page... I want to see Henne throw it down field a few more times a game..
Some people blame him, some blame Henning but in all reality we dont know whats the real deal.
I feel Henne is still slightly handcuffed, he is afraid to take chances. That is a good thing, but at times a bad thing.
All the great ones take chances, they dont always work. But its how they progress...
The sooner the training wheels are off the better.

I was labeled as "a typical south florida fan" yesterday cause I want it sooner rather than later..

Well so be it, this "building" nonsense is fun and all, but we have been waiting since JJ took over 15 years ago....

Its time to see exactly what we have. If everyone is figuring on a 9-7 season, why not let it loose and see what happens...
Whats the worst, we finish 8-8 or 7-9 again.
Is anyone really that delusional to think we can compete at the next level and go all the way if we play like we have been?
If I am not mistaken the run first defensive kings were handled by a pass happy offense in the AFC championship last year. and Two pass happy high scoring teams played in the superbowl...

Guys, the Super Bowl stats above are based on completed passes.

I will back up the fact that any of our WR's can get open deep. Marshall has the unique gift of not having to be open to get the ball. I'm not saying we need to base our offense around a deep toss, but we HAVE to include it. I still like the smash mouth run first, run second, run some more offense, but when we pass it, send it down the field!

YPA is so effective at predicting winners because when you throw down the field... you win! That does not mean throw for 5,000. That means the 2,500 yards you do throw are broken big chunks.

Dink and dunk passes will not carry your team anywhere regardless of how good your run game is.

Yards per ATTEMPT CANNOT be based on COMPLETIONS....

Too bad nothing you posted refutes anything I said...

2 mins Rich I'll check the math.

Ok it is attempts.

that was classic!

Except the video which clearly shows Marshall is a deep threat. Doesn't discount his YAC ability on short stuff but there's plenty of tosses in that video showing him beating coverage downfield. Henne/Henning have run out of excuses and saying the Dolphins lack a deep threat is ridiculous.

BTW...BMarsh has 52 receptions of over 20yds or more in his career and 9 over 40

I actually think that video destroys your argument. Most of the highlights are him taking short to intermediate throws and turning them into long gains aka his bread and butter. Or making ridiculously tough red zone catches.

No one is saying he can't run a deep route, he showed he can, but to expect him to run it consistently is taking away his strongest asset.

Those numbers are meaningless.

How many of those were thrown 20 or 40 yards IN THE AIR?
How many of those were thrown 5-10 yards downfield and then Marshall broke free for 20 YAC?

Oh wow... he catches passes downfield. You found a few highlights showing him doing that.

Like I said, it doesn't refute ANYTHING I have said. If you read carefully, you might realize that.

And so what if he has catches over 20 or 40 yards? How many of those traveled more than 20 or 40 yards IN THE AIR and how many did he get YAC on?

Anyone else find it comical that a windy day in Buffalo when Chad Henne didn't turn the ball over, completed 60% of his passes, and Brandon Marshall produced 8 receptions (some very tough) with some YAC, has become the defining game of this season that has proven to some that Chad Henne is Chad Pennington and that Brandon Marshall is supposed to be Ted Ginn (with the ability to catch of course) ?

ONE GAME, and the first of the season for that matter. You can say you expected more but for the love of Don Shula exercise some patience that it can get better production-wise.