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 Unlucky? 
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Post Unlucky?
The old adage that good teams make their own luck is often true. The Jets are living proof that luck plays a huge role in wins and losses. The Detroit Game was given to the Jets on a silver platter. Gift wrapped by not running out the clock, and a late hit OB the win was one the Jets didn't deserve. What team loses its kicker and QB in the same game. Then decides a 350lb DT is the best guy to try the extra point. Really?

Miami has had some of the dumbest bad luck this season.

First they lose a couple of contributing rookies for the year. Then they lose a couple of starters to a mysterious illness ... for a month!!!! Then after pulling off the impossible by going 2-0 they lose a close game to the Jets because of a blocked punt. Simple football execution, not so simple for Miami. The ST woes continue for another week as NE exploited the weakness and even planned the same style of block on a FG and a punt. Throw in nagging injuries to Jake Long and Vernon Carey and life in Miami got interesting. The bad luck continued with the refs pretty much handing Pittsburgh a game winning FG...all because they were too quick to call a non-TD a TD. Miami seemed to get on track by winning at Cinncinnatti but then got beat pretty good by a good Ravens Team.

So at 4-4..where are they. IMHO - they're in good position. Let's look at the remaining games and make a few assumptions.

1. They have no choice but to beat Tennessee. Tough task but with their conference record being abysmal, another loss to a competitor for the wildcard would be devastating.

Tennessee - a tough win

Home - Chicago - Win

Away - Raiders - tough win

Home - Cleveland - Win

Away - Jets - Win

Home - Buffalo - Win

Home - Detroit - Win

Away - NE - Loss


This is the best case scenario and a loss next week or at NY or to any of the other teams would mean a 10-6 or worse record and missing the post-season altogether.

The Jets can't remain this lucky the entire season. I suppose it could happen but for real it is hard for me to believe it will happen. Miami's luck, conversely, can't be that bad all season. At some point it has to turn. I could be wrong but I think this team will close strong.

The Jets can't remain this


Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:00 pm
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Post Re: Unlucky?
I refuse to chalk up this season's mediocre play to bad luck.

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Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:08 pm
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Post Re: Unlucky?
Very little to do with luck. Miami is 4-4 because they let opportunities to put points on the board slip away. They failed to put the Steelers away. They failed on the pass to Fasano today, failed to convert a third down on a dropped pass by Brown, failed to catch an interception that would have gone for six today and changed the scope of that game. How many times is Chris Clemons going to let an interception hit him in the hands and drop it?

All of those things aren't luck. It's not coaching. It's execution. And right now, the Dolphins are not executing. When you do those things, you make your own luck.


Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:12 pm
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Post Re: Unlucky?
Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.

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Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:06 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
NFLJunkie wrote:
Tennessee - a tough win
Home - Chicago - Win
Away - Raiders - tough win
Home - Cleveland - Win
Away - Jets - Win
Home - Buffalo - Win
Home - Detroit - Win
Away - NE - Loss


Man, that is a VERY optimistic outlook, Junkie. I hope you are right, but I see at least 3 losses (Titans, Jets, Patriots) and the Raiders, Browns, Bills, and Lions have upped their game and are showing enough improvement to beat us as well.

Unless the Dolphins figure out their end zone problems and defense gets back on track, it could be another top 15 draft position for us next year. I would say that it is a real shame that our round 1 rookie is out. It is as if we didn't have a first round pick this year.

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Mon Nov 08, 2010 5:08 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
Rich wrote:
Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.


I have to agree with Rich on this one. I think Miami still needs to improve in the following areas.

RB (Ronnie and Ricky won't be here much longer)
Interior OL
Secondary
Pass Rush help for Wake
TE
Deep threat WR
Special Teams (return man & tackling)
Red Zone TD production

Henning still has the training wheels on his offensive play calling. I am dying to see them attack more down field 15 yards + especially on 1st downs. I am sick of the conservative philosophy of don't make mistakes and dump the ball on check offs. I want to see the bomb thrown 3 to 4 times a game even if they don't complete it. I want to see them use Bess and Marshall more on 1st and 2nd downs. I want to see Henne get quicker with his decision making.

I think Miami has made great strides over the last 3 years with building a core team. But there are still many areas that need a play maker. I think 8-8 or 9-7 is the best we can hope for this season.

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Mon Nov 08, 2010 5:38 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
NFLJunkie wrote:
The old adage that good teams make their own luck is often true. The Jets are living proof that luck plays a huge role in wins and losses. The Detroit Game was given to the Jets on a silver platter. Gift wrapped by not running out the clock, and a late hit OB the win was one the Jets didn't deserve. What team loses its kicker and QB in the same game. Then decides a 350lb DT is the best guy to try the extra point. Really?

Miami has had some of the dumbest bad luck this season.

First they lose a couple of contributing rookies for the year. Then they lose a couple of starters to a mysterious illness ... for a month!!!! Then after pulling off the impossible by going 2-0 they lose a close game to the Jets because of a blocked punt. Simple football execution, not so simple for Miami. The ST woes continue for another week as NE exploited the weakness and even planned the same style of block on a FG and a punt. Throw in nagging injuries to Jake Long and Vernon Carey and life in Miami got interesting. The bad luck continued with the refs pretty much handing Pittsburgh a game winning FG...all because they were too quick to call a non-TD a TD. Miami seemed to get on track by winning at Cinncinnatti but then got beat pretty good by a good Ravens Team.

So at 4-4..where are they. IMHO - they're in good position. Let's look at the remaining games and make a few assumptions.

1. They have no choice but to beat Tennessee. Tough task but with their conference record being abysmal, another loss to a competitor for the wildcard would be devastating.

Tennessee - a tough win

Home - Chicago - Win

Away - Raiders - tough win

Home - Cleveland - Win

Away - Jets - Win

Home - Buffalo - Win

Home - Detroit - Win

Away - NE - Loss


This is the best case scenario and a loss next week or at NY or to any of the other teams would mean a 10-6 or worse record and missing the post-season altogether.

The Jets can't remain this lucky the entire season. I suppose it could happen but for real it is hard for me to believe it will happen. Miami's luck, conversely, can't be that bad all season. At some point it has to turn. I could be wrong but I think this team will close strong.

The Jets can't remain this


I agree but I will be very shocked and surprised if we go 7-1 in the second half of the season. But I agree the first half of the season was definitely more challenging and they survived going 500.


Besides the obvious division games, the Titans, Raiders, and Browns games have become huge because of their potential playoff tiebreaker scenarios.


Mon Nov 08, 2010 6:29 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
Miami has been good at beating teams they should beat. I wouldn't bury them just yet.


Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:15 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
NFLJunkie wrote:
Miami has been good at beating teams they should beat. I wouldn't bury them just yet.


I agree. Miami will find a way to win 10 games this season, IMO. The problem is that our conference record and head to head against teams we'll be fighting for spots with is atrocious.

As of right now, it looks like Pittsburgh and Baltimore are locks. One will win the division, one will take a WC at 11-5, or even 12-4. Even if they only win 10 games, they still have the tie breaker over us.

I feel sorry for whoever plays NE next week. While I don't think the Pats are as good as their record says, they still have 6 wins and will not finish with less than 11, IMO.

I don't see anybody in the AFC West that will present a challenge for a WildCard. I think KC and Oakland end up at 8-8, or 9-7 at the very best.

There are two teams that Miami will HAVE to beat; Tennessee and NY. Those are the two teams that, IMO, we'll be fighting for a WC spot with. I think Houston's secondary is just way too awful right now to win more than 8 games. They are just getting torched right now and will continue to get burned.

Tennessee if coming off a bye week, and have a rejuvenated attitude/swagger with Randy Moss now on board. Not sure if Moss will implode that locker room or not, but it won't happen before we play them. Then the Jets game is in their house, in December.

It's going to be tough, but they're certainly not out. If they win the games they're supposed to, and beat Tennessee and NY, than you're looking at 11 wins and a WC. If they lose to either of those teams, 10 wins won't be enough...not with our tie breaker(s) record.


Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:27 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
There is no such thing as luck. You win if you score more points than your opponent, simple as that.

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Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:30 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
bobby0112 wrote:
Rich wrote:
Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.


I have to agree with Rich on this one. I think Miami still needs to improve in the following areas.

RB (Ronnie and Ricky won't be here much longer)
Interior OL
Secondary
Pass Rush help for Wake
TE
Deep threat WR
Special Teams (return man & tackling)
Red Zone TD production

Henning still has the training wheels on his offensive play calling. I am dying to see them attack more down field 15 yards + especially on 1st downs. I am sick of the conservative philosophy of don't make mistakes and dump the ball on check offs. I want to see the bomb thrown 3 to 4 times a game even if they don't complete it. I want to see them use Bess and Marshall more on 1st and 2nd downs. I want to see Henne get quicker with his decision making.

I think Miami has made great strides over the last 3 years with building a core team. But there are still many areas that need a play maker. I think 8-8 or 9-7 is the best we can hope for this season.


I honestly feel like the talent is there defensively. They are just so young right now, and it will take time. I feel like getting Odrick back next season, as well as AJ Edds, Miami will have very few moves they'll have to make on that side of the ball.

Resign Soliai is a must. If they don't feel Nolan Carroll can be a nickel CB, then you have to go out and get one as well. I think a 3rd down pass rusher to opposite Wake is needed as well. I think that's for FA.

Overall though I think the talent is there. I think a minor tweak here, and a minor tweak there and as these guys gain experience they will become a top 10, if not top 5 D.

Offensively you have the foundation, but are missing the final ingredients. This is an offense built for Chad Pennington, as well as a game plan drawn up for him. I think you need to change your philosophy as well as change OC's. You need to add new blood at RB, (SHANE VEREEN!!), and add a playmaker at TE. Adding a speedster on the outside would be nice as well....not somebody to replace Hartline, but a 20 snap per game type of a guy who can open things up for you the way Ginn should have.

Incognito needs to be replaced as well (maybe it's with Nate Garner), and while Berger is OK, he's not a starter for an elite O-line, IMO.

Special Teams wise, you need to go out and grab a return man. It's time Miami invested a late round draft pick on a return specialist. There are several teams that have done that and are paying huge dividends for doing so. Nolan Carroll just is not a return guy. Period.


Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:33 am
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Post Re: Unlucky?
Miami is 4-4 because they are a 2nd tier team losing to 1st tier teams.


Thank you. You could even say that we were lucky to beat Minn, Buff, and GB as well.


Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:41 am
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