Feb 20, 2015https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/2 ... t-by-round
This post has a simple criteria: How many players were drafted by position and round over the last decade and how many went on to become a starter.
I did not distinguish superstars from regular starters. The determination of a starter comes from whether the player started at least half of their career. Obviously, this will run the gambit from below average to high performing starters. The reality is that if you can start in this league for at least half of your playing career, you are better than most. ...
Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.
You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.
QBs seem to be first round or bust.
O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.
Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.
Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.
Obviously, there are other factors that go into building a draft board. ,,,