This part of the article was written after Barry Jackson pooled a lot of positive information on Tannehill, one of which had Duper saying that "Dan [Marino] likes him" (after Duper sounded like us). After reading all of this, The Tuna made a major mistake in not taking Matt Ryan even though Jake Long was one of my favorite draft picks by the Dolphins. You NEVER pass on a starting caliber quarterback if you need a starting quarterback. If you pick in the top 5, chances are that you do not have a quarterback and you must pick one. And reaching is not a good idea.
Barry Jackson wrote:
Among my findings from an analysis of drafts since 2000:
1) Of the 124 quarterbacks drafted between the fourth and seventh rounds from 2000 to 2016, only three became above average starters (future Hall of Famer Tom Brady, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins) and three became average starters (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, David Garrard). That’s six out of 124, an awful percentage. So not drafting someone like Luke Falk can be justified that way.
2) Even if the Dolphins had drafted a quarterback in the first three rounds, his chance of success wouldn’t be great.
Between 2000 and 2016, 45 quarterbacks were selected in the first round. Fifteen (one-third) became above average starters and nine average starters. That leaves 21 who were busts or close to it. I would be shocked if safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is a bust.
3) Between 2000 and 2016, 19 quarterbacks were selected in the second round. Only three became above average starters (future Hall of Famer Drew Brees, Derek Carr and based on a small sample size, Jimmy Garappolo). Two became average or slightly better (Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick). That means 14 of the 19 never even became multiyear starters.
4) And there’s this: Of the 21 quarterbacks selected in the third round between 2000 and 2016, just three proved to be above average (Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Matt Schaub) and another (Josh McCown) was average. So that’s 17 failures in 21 tries.
Bottom line: Maybe the Dolphins were wise in drafting players more likely to succeed at other positions.
“The way the draft fell and the offseason fell, they were better off doing what they decided to do,” Simms said. “When you talk about a capable backup, drafting one of the top four guys [in the 2018 draft], you are not talking about a backup. You are talking this is going to be our guy. Looking at their team, do you want to go through stages of developing another quarterback? My thought would be no. Now they’ve got to win.”
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