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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:06 am 
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carreramia wrote:
AFCMiamiEast wrote:

You are an odd dude.

Is your last name Murray?


I think the proper question shoulda been, will I eat crow if Murray drops out of the 1st..if that happened, yes, I would have to because then you woulda been right that size does matter. Of course, the follow up question would have then be, would you eat crow if he goes top 10 or to Miami at 13. If this happened then logic says 5.9 or not the NFL doesn’t think size matters that much anymore due to rule changes, system changes, college driven coaching philosophies but more important when theres an abundance of talent elsewhere in the package.



Ha! Now the arguments changed to purely his draft day selection & not his actual career.

Already covering up your tracks, gotcha.

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jammer wrote:
I thought the crow eating contest was over whether Murray is an actual franchise QB to build around?


Evidently not, apparently C has already bought the appetizer and started to eat it.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:50 am 
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Its going to be Baker Mayfield all over again. Murray definitely has talent and can sling it. The two major questions are can his body hold up as a mobile QB in the NFL at only 180 or 190 LBs, and is he firmly committed knowing he has a baseball safety valve if needed?

He's clearly good enough to earn a giant signing bonus in baseball and even mid tier infielders are getting $8 million per season. One huge shot that threatens his health and he may do the math that 6 or 7 years at $8 million might not be all that bad.

He'll get more money upfront and the chance to start sooner in the NFL. But he may see baseball as his long term career despite what he says now. Its just a big risk to build something around him and possibly have him walk away.

As I mentioned a few posts ago, the debate will shift as to whether Miami should trade up for him. We're already there in my opinion.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:56 pm 
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jammer wrote:
The two major questions are can his body hold up as a mobile QB in the NFL at only 180 or 190 LBs, and is he firmly committed knowing he has a baseball safety valve if needed?

He's clearly good enough to earn a giant signing bonus in baseball and even mid tier infielders are getting $8 million per season. One huge shot that threatens his health and he may do the math that 6 or 7 years at $8 million might not be all that bad.

He'll get more money upfront and the chance to start sooner in the NFL. But he may see baseball as his long term career despite what he says now. Its just a big risk to build something around him and possibly have him walk away.


To say the least. If he wasn’t surrounded by top of the 1st round talk he wouldn’t be scrutinized.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:58 pm 
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jammer wrote:
I thought the crow eating contest was over whether Murray is an actual franchise QB to build around? Won't know that for a couple of years.

I think its a lock he's going top 10 now with his declaration


my argument was Murray should be Miami’s pick at 13 if he’s there....not putting words in his mouth AFC’s was no way jose does he want a 5.9 guy....I said, the Dolphins can’t afford to pass this guy up! He’s too skilled. Too talented. Too athletic. Too everything except tall. Thinking was Miami’s (and our) decades of suffering has been absence of a QB. Thinking was our franchise, our town, Fins fans world wide, needed a buzz, major buzz and Murray brings it. Thinking was the league is evolving, rules protect the QB, and who better to put behind a shaky oline? I also said you take him because no other position is nearly as important, as my buddy Neversee72 was stressing build an oline, build an oline.

I also made it clear that Miami would have a year to evaluate Murray and if any doubt existed, if a top QB fell in their lap in 2020 you take another. I never uttered or wrote “franchise QB” because you just never know once the NFL bullets start flying..... I made mention of how Goff, and Wentz previously anointed franchise QBs showed holes....anyway, it’s all moot as it appears no way he drops. But IF he does, out of the first round...then a heaping helping of crow is on me.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:13 pm 
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I don't think Murray, Haskins nor Lock get out of the top 10. So again, the debate is whether Miami should move up and I just don't see it right now.

The play I've endorsed and continue to endorse is Jarrett Stidham on Day 2. I'd find a way to move back and acquire an extra pick to use on him. The more I watch the more I see Derek Carr and that is not a bad thing. You take him with the idea that you can still grab a guy next year and best case scenario one of them becomes a great trading chip.

Stidham's film isn't always the best, but when he had decent protection and a supporting cast he was darn good in 2017. Even last year he limited mistakes and made a lot of NFL type throws with pressure all around him.

I don't know if Mahlzan's goofy offense and lack of coaching up his QBs will turn off Miami. From what I gather they'd rather a guy who already has pro style experience. However, Stidham has all the tools to be another Derek Carr type and he's done well against some of the better SEC competition while at Auburn. His practices at the Senior Bowl and the description of him being the only QB to "throw guys open" is what sealed it for me.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:20 pm 
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carreramia wrote:
jammer wrote:
I thought the crow eating contest was over whether Murray is an actual franchise QB to build around? Won't know that for a couple of years.

I think its a lock he's going top 10 now with his declaration


my argument was Murray should be Miami’s pick at 13 if he’s there....not putting words in his mouth AFC’s was no way jose does he want a 5.9 guy....I said, the Dolphins can’t afford to pass this guy up! He’s too skilled. Too talented. Too athletic. Too everything except tall. Thinking was Miami’s (and our) decades of suffering has been absence of a QB. Thinking was our franchise, our town, Fins fans world wide, needed a buzz, major buzz and Murray brings it. Thinking was the league is evolving, rules protect the QB, and who better to put behind a shaky oline? I also said you take him because no other position is nearly as important, as my buddy Neversee72 was stressing build an oline, build an oline.

I also made it clear that Miami would have a year to evaluate Murray and if any doubt existed, if a top QB fell in their lap in 2020 you take another. I never uttered or wrote “franchise QB” because you just never know once the NFL bullets start flying..... I made mention of how Goff, and Wentz previously anointed franchise QBs showed holes....anyway, it’s all moot as it appears no way he drops. But IF he does, out of the first round...then a heaping helping of crow is on me.


So you want to keep on dumping 1st rd picks on QBs until we find a franchise one? Yeah, that's feasible......not.

All this really doesn't matter because no team is willing to take a chance on a 5'10" 190 lb QB in the 1st rd. Murray's size, and the A's ability and willingness to outbid any NFL team for his contract will surely relegate Murray to the 2nd or 3rd rd.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:23 pm 
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carreramia wrote:
I never uttered or wrote “franchise QB” because you just never know once the NFL bullets start flying.....


Looking back on your passionate posts, you seemed pretty sure of yourself.

If you are taking a QB inside the top half of the 1st round or god forbid even earlier in the midst of a roster with two KEY units on both sides of the trenches in shambles, you better hope you hit or your *** is getting fired. ESPECIALLY with the BPA at your draft slot being a major team need.

I don’t need to tell you that NFL GMs don’t have luxury on using their most valuable pick on a QB with the real possibility of giving up on him in 10 months and emptying the barrel for another one at the top of the successive draft.

That’s fairytale land.

jammer wrote:
I don't think Murray, Haskins nor Lock get out of the top 10.


Another key reason that the BPA at a significant ‘need’ on either side of the line will be available at Miami’s natural draft position.

jammer wrote:
The play I've endorsed and continue to endorse is Jarrett Stidham on Day 2. I'd find a way to move back and acquire an extra pick to use on him. The more I watch the more I see Derek Carr and that is not a bad thing.


Dave needs to get you a Derek Carr fanclub badge. You are seeing the man everywhere Jam.

:)

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:40 pm 
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Relive1972 wrote:
So you want to keep on dumping 1st rd picks on QBs until we find a franchise one? Yeah, that's feasible......not.

All this really doesn't matter because no team is willing to take a chance on a 5'10" 190 lb QB in the 1st rd. Murray's size, and the A's ability and willingness to outbid any NFL team for his contract will surely relegate Murray to the 2nd or 3rd rd.


Hey, Miami has wasted decades taking everything else, and nothing has worked out. The last perennial pro bowler was Richmond Webb, drafted all the way back in 1990. You wanna keep doing the same thing over and over, and fail over and over? Murray may or may not work out, who knows if this new coaching staff would even know how to use him, and so you draft another one if the shoe don’t fit. You still have plenty of other rounds to waste on your precious offensive linemen.

And wake up and smell the first round...Murray will be gone there. Otherwise it’s brews on me when next you come down to suffer through another game. And if you don’t come down Prof and I will go up and meet you in Jax, who will probably have Murray in the lineup, drafted 7th overall if teams don’t jump over them, and we can see it up front and personal. A tall one for you for every batted pass. One for me for every Murray run or pass for first down.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:58 pm 
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AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Dave needs to get you a Derek Carr fanclub badge. You are seeing the man everywhere Jam.

:)


Guilty as charged. But better to have the $750K version of him maybe getting you to the playoffs than the $20 million version.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:46 pm 
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jammer wrote:
Guilty as charged. But better to have the $750K version of him maybe getting you to the playoffs than the $20 million version.


Do you remember back in 2012 (I think) when Rock Sexton won the crybaby badge? Yeah. You get that but with a big Derek Carr bobble head with the fan club plaque underneath it.

carreramia wrote:
A tall one for you for every batted pass. One for me for every Murray run or pass for first down.


I could definitely get down to that.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:37 pm 
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carreramia wrote:

Hey, Miami has wasted decades taking everything else, and nothing has worked out. The last perennial pro bowler was Richmond Webb, drafted all the way back in 1990. You wanna keep doing the same thing over and over, and fail over and over? Murray may or may not work out, who knows if this new coaching staff would even know how to use him, and so you draft another one if the shoe don’t fit. You still have plenty of other rounds to waste on your precious offensive linemen.

And wake up and smell the first round...Murray will be gone there. Otherwise it’s brews on me when next you come down to suffer through another game. And if you don’t come down Prof and I will go up and meet you in Jax, who will probably have Murray in the lineup, drafted 7th overall if teams don’t jump over them, and we can see it up front and personal. A tall one for you for every batted pass. One for me for every Murray run or pass for first down.


Grier's not going to take that kind of risk IMO. The only reason he's there is that Ross didn't want to have to hire a coach and GM by himself. The spotlight is on Grier now, he has to make the right offseason decisions or he'll be next out the door, and his GM Career will be done. I don't think he's willing to risk that pick on Murray.

And we do not know what Flores wants yet, and he will have a big influence in this. Being a defensive coach, he might want a defensive lineman. That new offensive coaching staff might just figure out their biggest problem is the OL, not so much the QB.

Murray will probably go to a team with an already established starter at QB, where he'll come in to run wildcat plays and some short yardage and goal line situations.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:50 pm 
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carreramia wrote:
And wake up and smell the first round...Murray will be gone there. Otherwise it’s brews on me when next you come down to suffer through another game. And if you don’t come down Prof and I will go up and meet you in Jax, who will probably have Murray in the lineup, drafted 7th overall if teams don’t jump over them, and we can see it up front and personal. A tall one for you for every batted pass. One for me for every Murray run or pass for first down.


BTW, I'm still waiting for one of us to cash in on that bet we made between Cleveland and Miami, $20 on which team wins a playoff game first. Looks like you have a good edge on that one now.

And count me in on the Murray bets.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:14 pm 
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Relive1972 wrote:

Grier's not going to take that kind of risk IMO. The only reason he's there is that Ross didn't want to have to hire a coach and GM by himself. The spotlight is on Grier now, he has to make the right offseason decisions or he'll be next out the door, and his GM Career will be done. I don't think he's willing to risk that pick on Murray.

And we do not know what Flores wants yet, and he will have a big influence in this. Being a defensive coach, he might want a defensive lineman. That new offensive coaching staff might just figure out their biggest problem is the OL, not so much the QB.


If Murray is there and Grier chickens out, then, not wishing him any health issues here, but give him a one way ticket to scout Wisconsin River Falls division III football in River Falls Wisconsin, in December, in 20 degrees below zero. Don’t even give him a cell phone. Grier today has all any GM would ever want, to play the wildest card, make the ballest call. Ross has OK’ed 1-15 if it goes there, so what can Grier possibly have to lose?? And if he lets those low level coaches now promoted perhaps beyond their skills make such a franchise making decision, then again, River Falls Wisconsin would love to have him....and I would help him get there!


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:19 pm 
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Relive1972 wrote:

BTW, I'm still waiting for one of us to cash in on that bet we made between Cleveland and Miami, $20 on which team wins a playoff game first. Looks like you have a good edge on that one now.


My boy Baker! (See what a QB can do?! And Murray is a much better athlete!).


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:15 am 
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Is he all the way "in" on football? Not to worry as he will be gone before Miami picks at 13.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:53 am 
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Interesting tweets from Allbright yesterday addressing the concern on Murray. While his height won't prevent him from finding throwing lanes it will force him to take deeper drops. This puts him directly in the path of edge rushers bending around OTs. Can his frame hold up with the amount of hits he'll take?

No one is questioning his arm talent, accuracy or ability to scramble.

For the record, Allbright was the one of the only guys betting it all on Mayfield being legit prior to the draft evaluation process. Just in case anyone was thinking he'll only endorse prototype sized QBs.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:17 am 
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jammer wrote:
AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Dave needs to get you a Derek Carr fanclub badge. You are seeing the man everywhere Jam.

:)


Guilty as charged. But better to have the $750K version of him maybe getting you to the playoffs than the $20 million version.


Wellllllll.... apparently Derek Carr's QBR over the same period of time is worse than Tannehill's.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:18 am 
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jammer wrote:
AFCMiamiEast wrote:
Dave needs to get you a Derek Carr fanclub badge. You are seeing the man everywhere Jam.

:)


Guilty as charged. But better to have the $750K version of him maybe getting you to the playoffs than the $20 million version.


Wellllllll.... apparently Derek Carr's QBR over the same period of time is worse than Tannehill's.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:30 am 
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Derek Carr's rating this year was 93.9 and his ESPN QBR (which is too confusing for me) was 49.

Ryan Tannehill's rating was 92.7 and his ESPN QBR was 35.4.

In 2016 (since Tannehill was injured in 2017) Carr's rating was 96.7 and his ESPN QBR was 56.1

Tannehill's rating was 93.5 and his QBR was 48.6.

So what we considered to be Tannehill's best year was still worse than what was considered a down year for Carr. Carr's rating in 2017 was 86.4 and his QBR was 50.5 (just for full disclosure).


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:54 am 
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jammer wrote:
Derek Carr's rating this year was 93.9 and his ESPN QBR (which is too confusing for me) was 49.

Ryan Tannehill's rating was 92.7 and his ESPN QBR was 35.4.

In 2016 (since Tannehill was injured in 2017) Carr's rating was 96.7 and his ESPN QBR was 56.1

Tannehill's rating was 93.5 and his QBR was 48.6.

So what we considered to be Tannehill's best year was still worse than what was considered a down year for Carr. Carr's rating in 2017 was 86.4 and his QBR was 50.5 (just for full disclosure).


According to something I read, Tannehill has a career QBR of 49.1 which ranks him 33 out of 39 out of QBs with at least 1000 pass attempts. The only ones worse are Matt Schaub, Brock Osweiler, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:55 am 
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To be clear, I find QBR to be an almost completely useless stat.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:33 am 
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You're probably correct on the total because I looked up Carr's complete numbers and his first two seasons were 42 QBRs. I don't know how to average them out because it requires more than adding and dividing by number or seasons.

Tannehill had 49, 48 and 60 his first three years.

Either way, if it is a good measure of QB performance than both Tannehill and Carr rank in the bottom third of QBs. The best QBs usually have a 65 or better.

And to your point of useless stat, 2017 was considered a bad year for Dak Prescott yet he had a 70 QBR and was ranked 4th overall. Case Keenum was the 2nd overall in QBR. Their rushing attack ranked 2nd and 7th respectively, while their defenses ranked 8th and 2nd respectively. So two QBs asked to do very little are considered top 5? No thanks.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:00 pm 
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I'll add this. According to Murray's agent, he just weighed in at nearly 205 lbs. If he truly put on 20 lbs and maintains his quickness that is pretty darn good.

My money is on Arizona taking him and trading Rosen. Rosen's first year stats aren't that much different from Jared Goff's rookie stats, and a team that misses out on Haskins and Lock could probably get him for a 2nd Rounder (maybe throw in a Day 3 or future pick too).

Lots of talk about Rosen having a Jimmy Claussen type of personality.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:30 pm 
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jammer wrote:
And to your point of useless stat, 2017 was considered a bad year for Dak Prescott yet he had a 70 QBR and was ranked 4th overall. Case Keenum was the 2nd overall in QBR. Their rushing attack ranked 2nd and 7th respectively, while their defenses ranked 8th and 2nd respectively. So two QBs asked to do very little are considered top 5? No thanks.


Great examples. I don’t believe there is a more complex sport out there with the depth that football has. There are so many moving parts and variables that it does make the QBR a useless metric.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:13 am 
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Pumping the brakes on the anti-Murray crowd out there. The kid is very talented.




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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:11 pm 
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Dave, you do know that Kelly tweet was about Tua right?

Regardles, he isn't getting to Miami at 13. If things start to shake out the way I think, Miami really needs to think about the possibility of Drew Lock at 13.

I don't care what they are saying now, I bet Arizona drafts Murray and Rosen is traded to the Giants. Here is how it would play out in the draft:

1. Ari - Kyler Murray
2. SF - Joey Bosa
3. NYJ - Quinnen Williams
4. Oak - Josh Allen
5. TB - Rashan Gary
6. NYG - Clelin Ferrell (traded 2nd Rounder plus more for Rosen)
7. Jax - Ed Oliver (signed or traded for Nick Foles)
8. Det - Montez Sweat
9. Buf - TJ Hockenson
10. Den - Dwayne Haskins
11. Cin - Devin White
12. GB - Jachai Polite

So now you're Miami with QB Drew Lock, DL Christina Wilkins, CB Greedy Williams, OL Jonah Williams, Cody Ford or Jawaan Taylor (if Miami is looking at left handed Tua then you need a really good RT).

I've read a little bit that Haskins is a 1st Round QB but may slip a bit. He's clearly better than Lock and that is why I don't think Denver would be dumb enough to pass. The Flacco signing buys Haskins a year to sit and learn.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:53 am 
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jammer wrote:
Dave, you do know that Kelly tweet was about Tua right?


Eh, what can you do when you're catching up on Dolphins stuff before 6 in the morning.

:))


jammer wrote:
10. Den - Dwayne Haskins


I don't think we're going to "tank", so, we are going to have to trade up this year or next year for a QB. Haskins is the only QB I would trade up for this year. There are a lot of "ifs" concerning Murray, so, I would draft him if he fell to us, but I wouldn't trade up for him. Next year, our record may be worst than this year as we are cutting the fat, which would mean that we would be picking higher in the draft. I see 3 QBs worth trading up for next year: Tua, Fromm, and Justin Herbert. Also, there is always one QB who takes the leap that no one foresees. I'd focus on drafting a franchise QB next year.

BTW, aside from Tannehill and Quinn, the "fat" that we are cutting did not contribute much to our season. Several were on IR. So, I just don't see a tank in the future for us. Maybe a short step back.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:50 am 
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Miami is going to attempt to trade for a lot of picks in next year's draft. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tannehill, Jones and maybe a surprise player are traded for conditional 2020 picks that can later be used to trade up.

It is dangerous to simply bank on next year. Tua already has a knee issue and Herbert injured his shoulder. So far Haskins, Murray and Lock appear healthy. Food for thought.


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