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 Post subject: +/- 5.5? Bet the OVER!
PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 9:13 am 
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I disagree with the consensus here. I see this team continuing its trend of going somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6 this coming season. I know that's heart-breaking to all of you who wanted us to be picking first, or at least in top 5, in the 2020 draft, I just don't see this team being as bad as most people think for several reasons.

1) Quality of players lost vs. quality of players gained. When you look at who we lost, compared to who we gained, I don't see the roster overall being worse than last year's. Everyone is acting like the entire 2018 Dolphin team was jettisoned and all we have this year is who we've acquired this year, and of course that's simply not the case. I would say the best player we lost was Tannehill, but most of you think he's garbage anyways, and replacing him with Fitzpatrick and Rosen an instant upgrade. Gore, Amendola, and Wake are the best of the rest of the players we lost, each one being old veterans on the decline anyway. The rest of the players we lost were bad to mediocre and easily replaceable IMHO.

2) Quality of Gase and his staff vs. quality of Flores and his staff. OK, we don't know what we have in Flores yet, but we knew what we had in Gase......an egomaniac idiot. Flores brings with him some other guys from the Patriots' staff, and they'll be installing a system very similar to that of the Patriots. It all looks good on paper, we'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds when games are actually played. So far, the new approach to the draft and free agency is already paying off.

3) This is a new Dolphins team installing new offensive and defensive systems. If you're an opponent, you might as well take all the game film you have of the Dolphins and throw it in the trash. Particularly the early season opponents. Conversely, our early opponents haven't changed and we should be better prepared.

4) The schedule makers were very kind to the Dolphins. 3 home games in September. When have we ever had that? No Thursday games. Only one prime time game on Monday Night, the rest of our games on Sunday afternoon. We have a schedule this season that coaches can only dream about.

5) This team is not tanking for Tua. Despite what Ross said, directly after last season was over, this team is not throwing away games just to pick higher in next year's draft. A tanking team would not be approaching late free agency like we have.

Putting all of the above reasons together, I do not see us wining less than 6 games. Don't get me wrong, I don't think we have a good enough roster yet to make the playoffs and win games there, but I do think this team is better than last year's and we did win 6 games.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 10:01 am 
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When 6-10 equals optimism.....

:alrightythen

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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 11:35 am 
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I would stay away from that line. I can very reasonably see this team winning 3-8 games. Crapshoot.

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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:12 pm 
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I put $20 on the under 5.5 games. If I lose $20 oh well.
I went down the schedule a few times and wrote w/l just to see where I ended up.
Over the course of a few days I always came out to 5 or 6 wins, so like AFCE said, crapshoot.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:17 pm 
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Nice write up.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:19 pm 
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Rich wrote:
When 6-10 equals optimism.....

:alrightythen


Never said anything about being optimistic at going 6-10. Most people think its a lock this team won't win 5 games. Peter King just did his first Power Ranking of 2019 and has us ranked dead last. I don't see it. Anything less than .500 to me would be a disappointment.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:28 pm 
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Relive1972 wrote:
Rich wrote:
When 6-10 equals optimism.....

:alrightythen


Never said anything about being optimistic at going 6-10. Most people think its a lock this team won't win 5 games. Peter King just did his first Power Ranking of 2019 and has us ranked dead last. I don't see it. Anything less than .500 to me would be a disappointment.


Didn't say you said anything about being optimistic. It's just a reference to the general state of affairs that if we win 6 games, people will be excited for the future.

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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:01 pm 
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Over.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 3:45 pm 
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Phins win the off season again. : )

I am no fan of Tannehill but I don't know or think yet that the Qb position has been upgraded. I expect to see a fall off at that position this year but hope I am wrong.

I think I will wait until after a few seasons to see if the new staff and supposedly new approach to the off season and draft is paying off.

Go Phins.

Thanks for taking the time to share your thougths and reasoning. I hope you are right.


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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 10:42 pm 
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I'm like a lot of fans, I suspect. I want this to work out so much it's agonizing. I want our team to be a presence in the playoffs and an annual threat for the AFC championship. I just won't believe it until I see some evidence that we're really heading in that direction; and that means actually winning games that matter. So I will withhold judgement for now.

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PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2019 11:26 pm 
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Gotta admit, I'm not too sure about Flores yet. He seems so quiet in his pressers, so reserved. I'm hoping he's not so laid back on the field.


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 6:09 am 
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Relive1972 wrote:
I disagree with the consensus here. I see this team continuing its trend of going somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6 this coming season. I know that's heart-breaking to all of you who wanted us to be picking first, or at least in top 5, in the 2020 draft, I just don't see this team being as bad as most people think for several reasons.


Actually a very good post, Relive. I'm in the consensus, though, and I see a 4-6 win season, but I also see a team on the rise for the very reasons you stated. Aside from losing JuWuan James and Cam Wake, we didn't lose a whole lot from last year's team. We have some players on the rise as Grier has added some good draft picks. Let's not forget what we looked like in the last half of the season last year ... we were bad all over. That's who we were last year, and I don't see a lot of changes that are going to make us look much better in the win column.

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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2019 8:01 am 
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Big Dave wrote:
Let's not forget what we looked like in the last half of the season last year ... we were bad all over. That's who we were last year, and I don't see a lot of changes that are going to make us look much better in the win column.


I don't think that's really who we were last year. Remember, we started the season 3-0, Tannehill was red hot and in the top 3 in QBR. Injuries hit this team hard last year. Sitton, our starting LG lasted all of one half of the first game, then went on IR. Kilgore, our starting center, lasted 4 games then went on IR. Tannehill got injured in the 5th game, missed the next 5 games, and was never fully healthy after that. Albert Wilson went on IR after week 7, he was our best playmaker IMO. Jakeem Grant, another playmaker, missed the final 7 games on IR. We had William Hayes for 3 games, then he went on IR. Xavien missed the final 4 games. TJ Mcdonald missed the final 2 games. Tankersley missed the final 9 games on IR. Even Gore, who looked indestructible, wound up on IR the final 2 weeks. All total, 21 times out of 60 that a player was listed as questionable, he did not play. 9 times a player was listed as doubtful, 9 times did not play. 19 times a player was listed as out, of course none played. A whopping 134 times we had a player listed on IR. I know injuries are going to happen to every team, every season, but 2018 was the worst for Miami IMO.

By season's end, the players we had left had grown tired of Gase. Throw in Rashad Jones and his antics over sharing time with Minkah......Davante Parker missing time for no reason......Drake not getting a lot of carries, even after Gore was lost for the year. How in the world we wound up beating the Patriots with all of this going on is beyond me. It really was a Miami Miracle.

That's the team we wound up with last year, a lot of our better players injured, and a lot of the rest already giving up. Not a true indicator of the level of talent we had IMO.


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 7:16 am 
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Peter King's latest power rankings ... dead last.

FMIA: Peter King wrote:
32. +MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-9)

So you hear things in this job. Some things you hear are true, some you’re not sure about, and some sound so smart and logical you figure there’s a good chance they’re true. This falls in the third category: Miami owner Stephen Ross either in direct words to his football people or in every message to the football staff in recent months, has told them he wants a long-term quarterback above all things—and whatever it takes, whether it be tanking this season, or somehow getting in position to take the quarterback they’re sure can be the next franchise quarterback for the Dolphins, that’s the most important development for this Miami season. Why not? Assessing Ross’ 10 years as majority owner of the Dolphins: one season over .500 … zero division titles … zero playoff wins … no franchise QB. If indeed he has told his minions that he is interested only in a quarterback who has a chance to be the next Dan Marino, why not? And if letting Ju’Wuan James and Cam Wake go in free agency and getting third and fifth-round Compensatory Picks in return, and if picking up an extra second-round pick by moving down in this year’s draft in a trade with New Orleans, and if dealing Ryan Tannehill to Tennessee for a fourth-round pick … if doing all those things leaves Miami with nine picks in the first five rounds next April, including (presumably) a high first-rounder of their own, then the Dolphins should be in fine position to draft a big QB prospect. By the way, acquiring Josh Rosen for the 62nd pick this year gives Miami a bridge year to see if Rosen just might be that franchise guy. Smart investment there. Funny to say this about the team I like least in 2019 heading into the season, but I appreciate what Miami’s doing.


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 8:14 am 
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Pete King's reasoning is wrong. Miami didn't acquire all of those extra picks next year just to move up and grab a QB. Miami is doing exactly what the Patriots do every year. Losing players in free agency and not signing any until later to get compensatory picks. Trading players for future picks. Moving down in the draft for future picks. This is what the Patriots do every year, and no one thinks they're loading up on picks and tanking the season just to draft Brady's successor.


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 10:44 am 
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Could it be possible both are true?


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2019 11:21 am 
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I wouldn’t go as far as to say this team will be picking up the 1st pick in 2020, but I agree with most of what he says here. They are as solid a lock as it gets to be picking inside the first 10 though.

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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 9:25 pm 
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Relive1972 wrote:
I know that's heart-breaking to all of you who wanted us to be picking first,


Don't know where you get the heart breaking part. First of all, that rosy view it's only your opinion with nothing but hope and blind faith writing it. Par for the course over 20 years worth of posts. It's May. Have we played a game yet?

But I know where you're coming from and it's unfair. The majority of fans are simply being realistic, and they are not the only ones. Fins are generally expected to be among the top two, three worst teams and nothing has changed to make your forecast believable. The defense has numerous holes in just about every area: no pass rush threat, we don't know how the rookie DT will translate to the pros and there's no one else of note in the position. Add poor LB play, and other than Howard who can cover? And we don't know how the safety position will work out now that Jones appears headed to the dog house. We are left with the hope that Flores can instill some of the NE mystery here, but that's all that is, hope. Talent wins.

Over on offense, nothing has happened far as I know to fix your pet peeve on the offensive line. The fact the Fins will trail and trail early in most games any chance of the running game making an appearance isn't likely, and we surely don't know what this QB situation will bring. We hope, I hope, that Rosen takes the reigns and soon, at least to tell us what he brings. Fitzpatrick has proven he's capable of putting up good numbers but he doesn't have the supporting cast he did in Tampa, and even that he wore out early. Besides, we don't need him to play well, or at all. We need Rosen to play, period. Do you really want Fitpatrick to play because he supposedly gives the Fins the best chance to win? Win what exactly? What do we accomplish with your win forecast if we don't find out what we have in Rosen?

Regarding your suggestion that Fins fans will be disappointed by your forecast that has us missing the fist pick. Why are you dismissing why fans would want the Fins to pick first? I would totally think you would want the same thing. The reasons are well established: (1) Tannehill. (2) The old front office. Fans were sick of the incompetence, the wasted years on Tannehill by the FO never addressing that glaring need and the coaching carousel Tannehill engineered. Having the 1st pick in a draft expected to have one, maybe two possible franchise QBs would be a dream come true for long suffering fans. After the last 20 plus years of botched drafts, missed opportunities to address the QB position, why should those fans be judged negatively?

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This team is not tanking for Tua.

This was totally frivolous. Of course the Dolphins aren't "tanking", as "tanking" means losing on purpose. The Fins will wind up with the worst or nearly the worst record simply because they are a bad team in a league that has better teams.

Quote:
I do think this team is better than last year's and we did win 6 games.

The Fins won 7 games, but two should have been losses (home games vs. NE and Buffalo). This was a five win team last year, and if they somehow win five again it would be a total waste of time.


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:49 am 
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carreramia wrote:
Relive1972 wrote:
I know that's heart-breaking to all of you who wanted us to be picking first,


Don't know where you get the heart breaking part. First of all, that rosy view it's only your opinion with nothing but hope and blind faith writing it. Par for the course over 20 years worth of posts. It's May. Have we played a game yet?

But I know where you're coming from and it's unfair. The majority of fans are simply being realistic, and they are not the only ones. Fins are generally expected to be among the top two, three worst teams and nothing has changed to make your forecast believable. The defense has numerous holes in just about every area: no pass rush threat, we don't know how the rookie DT will translate to the pros and there's no one else of note in the position. Add poor LB play, and other than Howard who can cover? And we don't know how the safety position will work out now that Jones appears headed to the dog house. We are left with the hope that Flores can instill some of the NE mystery here, but that's all that is, hope. Talent wins.

Over on offense, nothing has happened far as I know to fix your pet peeve on the offensive line. The fact the Fins will trail and trail early in most games any chance of the running game making an appearance isn't likely, and we surely don't know what this QB situation will bring. We hope, I hope, that Rosen takes the reigns and soon, at least to tell us what he brings. Fitzpatrick has proven he's capable of putting up good numbers but he doesn't have the supporting cast he did in Tampa, and even that he wore out early. Besides, we don't need him to play well, or at all. We need Rosen to play, period. Do you really want Fitpatrick to play because he supposedly gives the Fins the best chance to win? Win what exactly? What do we accomplish with your win forecast if we don't find out what we have in Rosen?

Regarding your suggestion that Fins fans will be disappointed by your forecast that has us missing the fist pick. Why are you dismissing why fans would want the Fins to pick first? I would totally think you would want the same thing. The reasons are well established: (1) Tannehill. (2) The old front office. Fans were sick of the incompetence, the wasted years on Tannehill by the FO never addressing that glaring need and the coaching carousel Tannehill engineered. Having the 1st pick in a draft expected to have one, maybe two possible franchise QBs would be a dream come true for long suffering fans. After the last 20 plus years of botched drafts, missed opportunities to address the QB position, why should those fans be judged negatively?

Quote:
This team is not tanking for Tua.

This was totally frivolous. Of course the Dolphins aren't "tanking", as "tanking" means losing on purpose. The Fins will wind up with the worst or nearly the worst record simply because they are a bad team in a league that has better teams.

Quote:
I do think this team is better than last year's and we did win 6 games.

The Fins won 7 games, but two should have been losses (home games vs. NE and Buffalo). This was a five win team last year, and if they somehow win five again it would be a total waste of time.


Rosy view? Did I predict Super Bowl, or even advancement into the playoffs? No. I merely opined that this team is better than the 5.5 Vegas projection. Yes it is May, no games have been played yet, but what makes my opinion a rosy view and yours a reality? Because you say so? And the fact most people believe the Dolphins are the worst team in the league doesn't matter to me. Most people thought Hillary Clinton was a shoe in to be President, too. This reminds me of when Marino and Jimmy Johnson retired, and everyone had the Dolphins winning 4, maybe 5 games under Wannstedt and Fiedler. They went 11-5 their first 2 years.

And nothing has changed, really? Have you been living in a cave the last 5 months? On defense, besides the obvious player turnover, all of which were aging, overpaid veterans or players that had little to no contribution, we're going from a Matt Burke schemed defense to that of a well proven Patriots scheme. That's not change? We have Rowe from the Pats who will probably start opposite Xavian. Our LBs I thought improved significantly over the course of last season. And no one is going to miss Rashad with Minkah taking his place.

On offense, yes, my pet peeve, the offensive line has more than likely improved. Ted Larsen is gone, and will probably be replaced by Deiter. We'll have Kilgore back at center. Jordon Mills replaces James at RT, I see that as a wash, while one of the local writers called it a clear upgrade. Even if Davis lines up at RG again, I see this offensive line being vastly improved over last year's. We have Rosen or Fitzpatrick vs Tannehill, who you largely blame for our Offensive failures anyway. We don't need Fitzpatrick to play well, or not at all? Huh? Look, if Fitzpatrick gives them the best chance to win, he should play, period. If Rosen can't beat him out, he needs to hold the clipboard for awhile. The object of football is to win, thankfully Flores sees it that way too. If Rosen couldn't win the starting job over Fitzpatrick during training camp and weekly practices, he shouldn't be playing. That alone should give you an answer as to if a franchise QB should be sought in 2020 or beyond.

No, I do not want the first pick, why would anyone want that? That means your team was the worst in the league. And besides, taking a QB with that first pick is nowhere near a guaranteed success. More often than not, the better QBs in each draft were taken with later picks. Mahomes, for example, was the 3rd QB taken in his draft class. And I don't need to remind you of Marino being the 5th QB selected in his class, or of Brady being taken in the 6th rd, do I?

Of course no C post would be complete without blaming Tannehill for everything bad that has happened to Miami over the last 7 years. Forget about the ineptitude of the coaching staffs, the failure to upgrade the interior OL year after year (except for 2016 when Tunsil fell in our lap and was put in at LG leading to our only playoff appearance in that era). The numerous injuries at key positions the team has endured. And I'm not judging anyone negatively. I'm merely stating an opinion as to whether or not they can win more than 5.5 games.

You say the team won't be tanking for Tua, because tanking would be losing on purpose, yet that is exactly what you want them to do by suggesting they should start Rosen even if Fitzpatrick gives them the better chance to win games.

On a side note, a trip down to Miami to watch a game this year is very possible. Hit me up if you're interested in meeting for a game.


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 9:12 am 
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Now you guys know why I was posting bibles when I first joined this forum.

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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 10:36 am 
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Relive1972 wrote:

On a side note, a trip down to Miami to watch a game this year is very possible. Hit me up if you're interested in meeting for a game.


No sense replying to the reply, all the points have been covered both ways, but you did paint a rosy view in your original post, rosy in respects to what everyone, the majority, almost all, except the die hards who bleed aqua believe. How many? What, two or three??

I jest.

I’m up for a game later in the season, a game we might have a chance of winning and seeing Rosen play, maybe the one vs. The Little Sisters of the Poor. Oh? We don’t play them? Darn it to heck! I’m bringing my grandson but I have to wait to know the weekend he has the kids. He’s been to three games, one each in the last 3 years, and they’ve won each time. No, wait. Maybe I’ll leave him home, we should be playing for the 1st pick overall by then, maybe the Bills on 11/17. Don’t want to spoil it. So anyway, we’ll hook up. Bring the 20 bucks because the Prefesser’s Brownies will have clinched a playoff spot by then.

And Rich? “Bibles" are good when they're good reading, correct, educational, provocative.....I’m talking Ogdu quality, not my banter with R of course.


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 10:59 am 
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carreramia wrote:
Relive1972 wrote:

On a side note, a trip down to Miami to watch a game this year is very possible. Hit me up if you're interested in meeting for a game.


Bring the 20 bucks because the Prefesser’s Brownies will have clinched a playoff spot by then.


The bet was which team advances in the playoffs first. So I'll leave my $20 in my wallet for now.


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 11:28 am 
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Relive1972 wrote:

The bet was which team advances in the playoffs first. So I'll leave my $20 in my wallet for now.


THAT was totally, completely spit out the milk, ROTF, LMAOOL.......I know an excellent shrink that can help with your problem. And he’s a former Aqua colored glasses Dolphins optimist like you, so he has first hand experience. Just don’t try to turn him with your Fantasy Island spins, after 45 years he’s almost out of recovery.


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