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Dan Jamroz, PhinfeverOkay, time get back into the swing of things with amateur analysis. Miami travels to New York for a 1 PM game. The Jets are coming off a stunning blowout of Detroit and a very impressive debut for rookie QB Sam Darnold (should have been a Dolphin but I'll let it go for now). Vegas has the Jets as 3 point favorites with a 44 O/U. Sounds like they are expecting a 24-20 game which I think could be high but let's take a peek at what to expect.

For Miami's offense I expect to see a little more balance against a good NY defense. Ryan Tannehill probably gets 25 +/- pass attempts and I'd like to see him target the TE on some seam routes as he always did well there. AJ Derby earned starter duties and will be more involved, while Mike Gesicki got pushed around a bit too much and will probably see fewer snaps. Kenyan Drake should get more carries this week and Adam Gase will conserve Frank Gore by giving him another 10 or so carries to get those tough yards. After seeing his impressive debut I expect the Jets to try and take Kenny Stills out of the game. Watch for Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson to be targeted on short throws and trickery plays to expose an aggressive Jets defense.
Speaking of, the Jets defense made Matt Stafford look terrible with four interceptions and added another one for good measure. I expect them to be stout versus Miami and apply plenty of pressure on Tannehill. They didn't register a sack against Stafford but they had him running for his life. Both starting corners, Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson, had interceptions and played well in coverage. Tannehill will not be able to afford costly picks in this game the way he did against Tennessee.

The Jets offense was way better than I expected. Darnold gets the hype but I'm more concerned about Isaiah Crowell slashing through Miami's line or getting around the edge. He had 100 yards rushing on 10 carries with 2 TDs. Granted one run went for 60 yards but those are the back breaking plays that worry me. Darnold will not be afraid to test the secondary and hopefully fellow 1st Rounder Minkah Fitpatrick makes him pay (as well as Reshad Jones, TJ McDonald, Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain). Miami missed way too many tackles against Tennessee, and McDonald and the younger LBs missed coverage assignments. Have to clean that stuff up, especially in a hostile road game.

The key for Miami is how New York enters the game. Will they have inflated egos and try to ride momentum from their Monday night victory? Or can Todd Bowles keep them grounded and focused? If its the latter I have a tough time buying a Miami victory. These divisional games are always tough and goofy (not that a 4 hour weather delay to start the season is normal).

Bowles doesn't have a great track record of controlling that locker room so I think Miami can seize upon a cocky, vulnerable Jets team. It will be an ugly statistical game and I expect turnovers from both sides, but I think Miami can steal one here before Sam Darnold establishes himself as the second best QB in the division.

Miami 19
New York 17

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