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After a week and a half of preparation the Miami Dolphins host division rival New York Jets this Sunday at 1 PM.  The Dolphins are coming off a Thursday night embarrassment in Houston where the defense surrendered 42 points and 427 yards. The Jets have lost two straight leaving them at 3-5 and in the midst of a growing pains season for some of their young talent. Vegas has Miami as 3 point favorites with a 45 over/under.

The first meeting of these teams resulted in a Miami win which should not have been surprising. The Jets were way too cocky after beating down the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and ripe for a humbling experience. Winning in Miami shouldn't be easy for them but the Lions and the Texans have provided a blue print that I'm not sure Miami can counter. QB Sam Darnold is the future of Jets, but he has already thrown 10 interceptions this season while only completing 55% of his passes. Miami's secondary can hopefully force him into costly turnovers again. The Jets ground game is now without Bilal Powell so they'll offer either a RB by committee or feature Isaiah Crowell. Also, be on the lookout for UM standout TE Chris Herndon as TEs have been feasting on Miami recently. Expect a heavy dose of running and play action to attack the middle of the field.

The Jets defense is ranked 19th in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed, but they have produced 10 interceptions, forced 9 fumbles and recorded 17 sacks. Like Miami's defense they seem to rely on the big play to turn the tide...except Miami's defense has only recorded 9 sacks. Its looking likely that Brock Osweiler will start for Miami and a recent film breakdown shows that many of his throws beyond 10 yards are inaccurate and turnover worthy. Be afraid if the defense can get pressure on him. The Jets have allowed 126+ yards on the ground in 6 of their 8 games so its safe to say that should be Miami's focal point. Of course Miami only rushed for 42 yards in their previous matchup.

If Miami wants to win this game they need a ground and pound identity. Defenses have figured out these 1st down short throws and are limiting them to 2 yards gains. I've also noticed too many out routes where the throw takes the receiver out of bounds rather than give him a chance to get up the field with YAC. I'd rather see a steady diet of Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake hitting the hole for 3 or 4 yards to shorten up 3rd down. Osweiler has had several lucky breaks in dropped interceptions, and outside of his TD pass to Danny Amendola I can't recall very many intermediate throws that were on point. One of the things Osweiler has done better than Ryan Tannehill is throwing the ball away to avoid sacks. The Jets defense sacked Tannehill four times in Week 2 and forced some errant throws as well. Osweiler needs to avoid that.

I'm tempted to pick the Jets in an upset, but Miami has done a decent job against mistake prone QBs. They should be fired up and know this is a must win game for any shot at the playoffs. This has all the makings of a snoozefest where both QBs look shakey, the defenses get caught with their pants down (yet don't allow a lot of points) and we're all just happy to walk away with a win. Be warned, if Miami loses what should be a very winnable home game we will see heads roll next week. Not a lot of confidence in this prediction:

Miami 23
New York 19

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