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2015 Free Agency
As I stated earlier this week, I understand where people are coming from in regards to concerns with the cap, not to mention some of our previous big signings in free agency by the Dolphins.
However, I think Suh needs to be looked at differently as it isn't every free agency period that we see a player like him become available. In fact, it has been a while since a top 3 player at his position and in his prime becomes available. Most of them get franchised before the free agency period ever begins.
I also think, looking at future cap years and the amount of money we can shed quickly by dumping some previous bad signings, that his cap number is manageable. Also, depending on the structure of the signing bonus and base salaries, it sounds like this is really a 3 year, $60 million contract, not a 6 year, $114 million contract. At worst, we're on the hook for this contract at most for 5 years since signing bonuses can only amortize up to 5 years.
Lastly, the primary reason we missed the playoffs was the decline of our defense, specifically our run defense, during the last 6 weeks of the season. We already had a lot of money tied up at the tackle position and to retain Odrick we would have had to invest more. But we would have been investing it in a decent player and a significantly diminished player rather than a game changing top 3 player at his position, maybe the best player at his position, maybe top 3 on his side of the ball period. A player that teams have to make the primary focus of their gameplan as the Patriots did by completely abandoning the run and relying on dump offs, screens and short quick passes for 3 quarters.
And as you correctly pointed out, the cap will go up again. Right now, the Dolphins are projected $40 million under the cap in 2016 if the cap stays flat. As I said elsewhere, that number can easily go up to $60 million by getting rid of a few more contracts. It's not going to stay flat. In fact, it is projected to spike up to as high as $150 million by 2016. The cap was supposed to stay flat from 2014 to 2015 and it still went up.
This is not just an opportunity to spend big money on a player like a Mike Wallace or Karlos Dansby. This is an opportunity to completely transform your defense. This is as sure a thing as it gets. Is there risk? Absolutely. Suh may suffer a serious injury and never fully recover, he may get struck by lightning, etc etc. But the options are to sit there and play it safe or move mountains. This team has missed the playoffs now almost every single year for over a decade. It's time to change the game. And Suh does that.
Congratulations, Miami fans! You have landed the preeminent free agent of the century thus far in Ndamukong Suh. From a Lions scribe who has watched every snap the fantastic defensive tackle has ever played–most several times–here is a little breakdown on what exactly you are getting for the reported six years and $114M, at least $60M of which is guaranteed.
You are getting an interior dynamo. Ndamukong Suh will be the primary focus of the opposing blocking scheme on every snap he’s on the field. Offenses have to account for his alignment, and he’s always been good in Detroit at making subtle pre-snap adjustments to change the angle or alter the OL coordination. Very few teams have ever successfully handled Suh with just one blocker for more than a handful of snaps.
You are getting a legit pass-rushing threat up the gut from the line. Suh can destroy pass protection with rare power. He’s a strongman amongst strongmen, blessed with violent muscle throughout his body. His jolting hands and how forcefully he follows it with coordinated leg drive and core strength is something no other defensive lineman has, not even J.J. Watt.
Yet he can also win with quickness. Suh has learned to set up moves better and to use his foot positioning to improve his football geometry. At heart he still wants to win every battle with a vulgar display of power, but he’s got the ability to do more.
You are getting a player who stays on the field. He’s never had anything more than an annoying injury, hardly ever missing any practice time let alone games. In that aspect he’s quite different from the other former Lion on the defense, Louis Delmas. Suh can play 6 snaps in a row on a drive and remain effective too. Stamina and conditioning will never be an issue.
You are getting a player who has developed into an outstanding run defender. It wasn’t always that way, but he has learned how to better locate the ball and to take better angles when he’s chasing it. Some Lions fans would argue with me about this point, but I also believe his overall football IQ has improved significantly in his 5 years.
You are getting a player who will “only” bag between 6 and 10 sacks, which on the surface seems like a terribly poor return on investment. Judge Suh not by his own numbers but by the sack productivity of the entire defense. In Detroit he was very good at tying up two blockers and clearing a blitzing lane for the MLB or a safety. He is great on stunts and twists, springing George Johnson or Ziggy Ansah for clean shots at the QB.
Because you already have an elite pass rusher in Cameron Wake, it might be hard to gauge Suh’s corollary impact on the pass rush. You will want to look at sack and QB Hurry stats from the lesser and role players…
…and here is where the story changes. The massive financial commitment means much of the rest of the defense is going to consist of lesser and role players. It is absolutely imperative for your front office to hit on schematic fits in days two and three of the draft, and to get lucky with an undrafted free agent or low-cost veteran or two every year. That’s not impossible–Detroit did it the last two years–but it creates a very thin margin for error.
Thin will also characterize the depth. When you sign a player to that kind of deal, there is less room for middle class on the roster. And that’s not just on defense, either. The front office will have to be sharp, and the coaching staff must excel at player development and recognizing what the assets on hand can and cannot do. These are the primary differences between the 4-12 Jim Schwartz Lions and the 11-5 Jim Caldwell Lions.
One thing you are not getting is a leader. He has tried hard to build up his reputation in this area, but it’s always been hollow noise. Delmas is a leader. Suh is an extremely talented individual who others can emulate, but he’s not going to lead the charge into battle or galvanize a locker room around him. There won’t be any problems with Suh in the locker room, but it can be awkward when the highest-paid player isn’t the definite leader. Detroit knows this with Calvin Johnson.
You are getting a divisive persona. Some would call Suh a pariah for his on-field controversies. It’s always been a delicate balance for Detroit fans, who see the attempted decapitation of Andy Dalton, the unnecessary cut block on John Sullivan, the grazing blow with his foot to Matt Schaub’s man region, the stomps (yes, plural), and to try and weigh how vociferously to defend the acts while at the same time being honest.
My take? He’s not a dirty player, but he is a victim of his own inability to control his aggression in the heat of the moment. Lions fans know dirty. Dom Raiola was our center for over a decade. Raiola was dirty. Suh is more prone to temporary insanity than “dirty” play in and play out. Unfortunately that makes his incidents more unpredictable and frustrating. It is going to happen, and his history has escalated the stakes to where Suh will get suspended for at least a game with any future incidents, even the fuzzy ones like his late-season stomp.
Many Lions fans are going to be cross about losing him, and some will go out of their way to dog their former hero. That’s natural. I know this a little too well as a die-hard Cleveland Cavaliers fan who watched “The Decision” on my father’s 65th birthday and made the cake taste like literal crap. It’s not like that with Suh, not for me anyway. Ndamukong always made it quite clear this was all business, almost coolly so. It’s frustrating to lose him but he never vacillated from his business plan and that’s part of who you are getting too. The man is quite smart, but he’s loyal to himself over all else.
Good luck with Suh. Sincerely. He was a treat to watch over the last five seasons (covering him professionally, not so much but that’s the local media’s problem) and he can make a good defense great.
The Free Agency period "Officially" begins on Tuesday. But the unofficial talks REALLY began back at the Combine in Indianapolis last month, as teams and agents meet to talk about either their own free agents to be or free agents that teams could possibly be interested in.
As we head to the official beginning of the free agent signing period, the Miami Dolphins have stepped up and become the clear leader to sign what has been called the highest impact defensive player since Reggie White, Detroit's DT Ndamkong Suh. The 28 year old Suh leads all DT in sacks since 2010, his 1st year in the league, with 36, and is as stout as any DT against the run. If you want to see a true visual of the impact this man can have on a game, just take a look at the playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys, and the offensive line that is considered the best in football.
In that game he had 3 tackles, 2 sacks and was a force against the run. For the season, Suh had 53 tackles and 8.5 sacks. I cannot emphasis how important it is and how disruptive to ANY quarterback to have pressure right up the middle. Suh can provide that, along with taking attention away from DE Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon and whoever the tackle that will be lining next to Suh. He can make the linebackers job easier by taking up blockers and his ability to provide pressure up the middle can help improve an already very good pass rush, which helps improve what was a pretty solid secondary for the Dolphins for most of 2014.
I don't want to get to far ahead here, because nothing is official as of yet and will not be until Tuesday. There are still a lot of moving peices to be put in place, and perhaps teams making a last ditch effort to get into the hunt for Suh. But, what we can do is look at the possible effects of signing Suh would do for the Dolphins in regards to the 2015 NFL Draft.
Right off the bat, you can push the thought of a defensive tackle down of the list of holes the Dolphins will look to fill early in the draft. The Dolphins were interested in Washington's Danny Shelton, Florida State's Eddie Goldman or Texas DT Malcolm Brown possibly in the 1st round. Miami could look to add a young DT later in the draft, but adding a 1st round DT would be off the plate if Suh is signed.
I think now the Dolphins will look to add a linebacker through the draft now that the New York Jets have re-signed ILB David Harris. My thoughts are that unless Miami trades back in the draft to acquire additional picks, I don't believe that there is a linebacker with value at #14 that the Dolphins would take, at least at ILB. Clemson's Vic Beasley could have been a consideration at one point, but after he BLEW UP at the combine, I feel pretty confident that he will go in the top 10.
My thoughts are the Dolphins will look to go linebacker in the 2nd round, and a couple of prime targets are ILB Denzel Perryman of Miami and UCLA ILB Eric Kendricks. Both have the type of speed and ability the Dolphins like, and Miami has already spoke with Perryman.
It also looks like Miami might target possible safety needs and CB needs via free agency. They have reached out to Buffalo Bill safety DaNorris Searcy and have shown interest in New Orleans Saint CB Patrick Robinson. Prime targets Kareem Jackson signed back with the Texans and Brandon Flowers of San Diego is working on a deal to sign back with the Chargers.
I have not seen anything in regards to Miami and the OL yet with the exception of the Dolphins possibly being very interested in OG Clint Boiling from Cincinnati. At 25 years old and coming off a solid season for the Bengals, I believe Boling will be a nice signing for the Dolphins, as the Bengals have not re-signed him as of yet. Will be interesting to see how this develops. I saw where OG Mike Iupait is looking for 8.5 million/per year, and that San Diego will make a run at him. He asking for more that ORT Bryan Buluga, the ORT from Green Bay that is supposedly looking for 7.5-7 million per year. We will see how the market shakes out, but I would imagine OG Orlando Franklin will be in that same ball park.
As many have seen by now, the Dolphins have released wide receivers Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, CB Courtland Finnegan, linebackers Darnell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler and OT Nate Garner. Some players that are still very much in play are defensive tackles Earl Mitchell and Randy Starks and WR Mike Wallace. Of that group, I think Wallace has the best chance to remain. Miami had some preliminary discussions with GB WR Randall Cobb, but things never got serious and Cobb re-signed with the Packers, taking less money than what was offered by the Raiders.
How does this impact the draft? Regardless of whether Wallace is on the roster or not, the Dolphins will draft a wide receiver, and I believe they will look to draft multiple wide receivers if they don't sign one during free agency. Maimi supposedly has interest in Jacksonville WR Cecil Shorts and San Diego WR Eddie Royal. Both would be looked at as slot receivers, #3 wide receivers.
My thoughts are in regards to the 1st round pick for the Dolphins is that they will look to bring an impact player in at the wide receiver position. Becuase while Mike Wallace will possibly be back in Miami in 2015, and I believe he will be, there a very good chance he will be gone after the 2015 season. And for those that may hate this thought, I would not rule out OL just quite yet in the 1st round. This will be determined by free agency as well though.
We are just a few day away from the official start of free agency. Will the Dolphins be able to secure the Crown Jewel of Free Agency in Suh. We will find out very soon. It will have a profound impact on the draft for the Dolphins. Bring it on.